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Why Roto over Points?

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Postby wkelly91 » Tue Feb 03, 2004 4:52 pm

Stevelabny wrote:
My point is...
H2H sucks because of the luck involved in who your opponent is , and how one good or bad thing can effect the standings significantly.
Points suck because as others have stated they take value away from the catagories and just assign a player a flat vlaue. Therefore there is no worrying about hurting one category to help another. Any roster decisions come down to "who will score more points" PERIOD.

I'm not sure what H2H points leagues you have played but what you're descibing isn't what I see. Luck is only a small factor in the overall finality over a baseball season.

In a weekly H2H yes there will be weeks that you lose from a hot player etc. but a manager who is working his team all season (as in roto) he will be rewarded with a playoff spot. This is where the "reality" if you will comes in. The better team doesn't always win in every sports event. There are many examples of great teams with great managers not winning it all. I get sick of hearing roto-nuts saying they don't want to play H2H because if they invest the time in their team they want to ensure that they will win.

How fake is that? 8-o

If baseball were like "roto" then MLB would play one 1458 inning game and that would be the season. H2H gives you the excitement of winning and losing each week.

I have heard some "Rotos" say there is no trading. My leagues have been full of trading.

I've heard the arguments that in "Roto" you have to look at the whole team and how the categories fit together to work out the more complete team whereas with H2H all you have to do is get the guy with the most points?

How do you get the guy with the most points? :-?

The same way you do in Roto. You have to evaluate your players and what they bring to the overall performance of the team. Maybe in H2H there is an over emplasis on saves but stolen bases are equally over emphasized in roto. Why else would you have Dave Roberts on your team. Is that your idea of a team put together well? :-o

As far as manipulation is concerned. "Roto-nuts" refuse to listen when it is pointed out that those concerns can be eliminated in leagues with serious owners. In fact in my league last year the guy who won made the fewest moves both trade, drop/add, and two time pitchers, thus disproving the "manipulation theory".

Any manager who says he lost out in a 27 week league and blames it all on luck or manipulation probably sucks as a manager and would suck in roto too. :-t


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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Tue Feb 03, 2004 5:51 pm

fantasy_gamer wrote:LOL @ what your "facts say". Gimme a friggin break. You sound worse than a politician -- and will get about as much support on this as a bad one.

On a groundout, 2 things must happen BEFORE the out -- 1) Fielder must field the ball cleanly and 2) make a good throw to first. So you're telling me you'd just conceed this each and every time someone hits the ball on the ground??

This isn't an issue on what an manager says.....it common sense!!


I'm not interested in what "common sense" says. And what I've written would get HUGE amounts of support on those web sites where knowledgeable baseball fans who understand numbers congregate. Go visit BP or Baseball Primer or Aaron's Weblog or Stathead.com or SABR or any site that relies on facts to support their opinions.

No one is saying anything about "conceding". What the facts show, however, is that over the long haul of a season, if a guy makes 400 outs, it doesn't matter whether those 250 groundouts and 150 Ks or 300 ground outs and 100 Ks or 350 groundouts and 50 Ks. The impact the players has on runs depends far more A) whether or not he makes an out (i.e. his on-base percentage) and B) what he does in the 200 or so plate appearances when he doesn't make an out (i.e. his slugging percentage) than on the types of outs he makes in the other 400 plate appearances. Once you account for OBP and Slugging, the contribution to understanding the value of a player from "types of outs" is approaching zero.

For those still interested in learning a little bit about the great game of baseball..

http://thediamondangle.com/archive/nov03/kfile.html

http://espn.go.com/mlb/columns/neyer_rob/1321213.html

http://www.findarticles.com/cf_dls/m120 ... icle.jhtml

http://www.strikethree.com/03/06/04/dave.shtml

http://www.baseballprimer.com/clutch/ar ... 9710.shtml
A discussion on the value of productive outs.

http://www.baseballcrank.com/archives/002286.php

http://www.baseballmusings.com/archives/005717.php

Even a major league hitting coach agrees:

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/inside ... 2/insider/
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Postby HOOTIE » Tue Feb 03, 2004 11:44 pm

fantasy_gamer wrote:LOL @ what your "facts say". Gimme a friggin break. You sound worse than a politician -- and will get about as much support on this as a bad one.

On a groundout, 2 things must happen BEFORE the out -- 1) Fielder must field the ball cleanly and 2) make a good throw to first. So you're telling me you'd just conceed this each and every time someone hits the ball on the ground??

This isn't an issue on what an manager says.....it common sense!!



GTWMA is right. Studies have shown how outs are made isn't a issue. the important thing is how often they are made.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Wed Feb 04, 2004 12:20 am

HOOTIE wrote:
GTWMA is right. Studies have shown how outs are made isn't a issue. the important thing is how often they are made.


FWIW, I'll tack on a clarification. Holding everything else constant, more strikeouts does have a very, very small negative effect on team runs and player value. However, it's almost never true in the real world that "more strikeouts" is not connected to other things that differ across players (and teams). A player can earn a lot of strikeouts in a number of different ways, but one of the most common ways is by being a very patient disciplined hitter. Such a hitter often takes strikes, simply because they are not "his pitch". As a result, they find themselves in more 2 strike counts than the typical batter and strike out at a higher than average rate.

BUT, those batters also walk at a much higher than average rate (because they don't swing at balls, that undisciplined hitters do) and they also slug at a higher rate (because when they swing it is more often than not a ball right where they want and they drive it). If you look over the lists of leaders in Ks (in a season or career), you'll often see the same names in the leaders in walks and slugging. There's a reason for that--it's plate discipline--and that's also the reason why strikeouts are not really as much of a negative as most people think. (you'll also see some guys that are simply undisciplined hitters--low walks, high Ks, relatively average or below average BA, OBP, and SLG).

Contact hitters, on the other hand, may not strikeout as much, and they may get a higher BA, but they often walk less and slug less. As a result, their greater number of singles is offset by fewer walks and fewer extra base hits. It's a different approach to hitting and it works well for some guys. But, by the same token, the patient hitter can be very effective, despite more strikeouts.
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Postby Guest » Wed Feb 04, 2004 1:12 am

Alright, you think what you want.....I'll continue thinking what I want.

Groundouts aren't worse than Strikeouts. I don't give a damn about studies honestly. You can manipulate stats in infinite ways to support a "study". I could base a Roto study to support an "A-rod theory" and you'd win your league -- based on my winning my league 5 years straight with him.

It was great to see the Angels and Marlins win the last 2 World Series -- and furthur prove games on won ON THE FIELD and not with mathematical formulas. ;-D
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Postby HOOTIE » Wed Feb 04, 2004 1:37 am

Anonymous wrote:Alright, you think what you want.....I'll continue thinking what I want.

Groundouts aren't worse than Strikeouts. I don't give a damn about studies honestly. You can manipulate stats in infinite ways to support a "study". I could base a Roto study to support an "A-rod theory" and you'd win your league -- based on my winning my league 5 years straight with him.

It was great to see the Angels and Marlins win the last 2 World Series -- and furthur prove games on won ON THE FIELD and not with mathematical formulas. ;-D


What good does a groundout do with 2 outs? That just eliminated 33% of every out in mlb history. Leading off, or batting with no one on, does it matter that it's a groundout over a strikeout? More then 50% of abs come with no one on base.

Last year Anaheim had the fewest k's 838. They scored 736 runs.
Cincinatti had the most k's with 1,236, 394 more then Anaheim. Cincinnati scored 694 runs. Add in Anaheim had a dh, and the run difference is nothing.
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Postby Guest » Wed Feb 04, 2004 2:04 am

[quote="HOOTIE}

Last year Anaheim had the fewest k's 838. They scored 736 runs.
Cincinatti had the most k's with 1,236, 394 more then Anaheim. Cincinnati scored 694 runs. Add in Anaheim had a dh, and the run difference is nothing.[/quote]

Too bad neither had a staff....

Your simple "just add in the DH" quote sums up the whole world of statistics -- EVERYTHING can be refuted very easily. I guess Great American Ballpark accounts for nothing?? Perhaps in every other case but this one??

I'm not in this for an argument, but when games are won on the field solely based on statistics -- let me know. James and Beane won't beat you to it.....
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Wed Feb 04, 2004 7:19 am

Anonymous wrote:Alright, you think what you want.....I'll continue thinking what I want.

Groundouts aren't worse than Strikeouts. I don't give a damn about studies honestly. You can manipulate stats in infinite ways to support a "study". I could base a Roto study to support an "A-rod theory" and you'd win your league -- based on my winning my league 5 years straight with him.

It was great to see the Angels and Marlins win the last 2 World Series -- and furthur prove games on won ON THE FIELD and not with mathematical formulas. ;-D


"I don't have any good evidence to back up my opinion but I'll cling as tenaciously to it as I do to my ignorance of the facts about baseball. To further illustrate the flaccidity of my position, how about if I rely on the old canard that you can prove anything with statistics and a laughable anecdote."
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Postby Scoot » Wed Feb 04, 2004 10:36 am

stevelabny wrote:
Scoot wrote:Wow!!! Invalid points in a raging fit. 8-o
If you heckle a league because fielding stats are included maybe you should wake up. The rest of us are here in 2004, not 1995. Stop being one dimensional, the world has moved on.


Hmm, you're right. They've moved away from the most pointless stat ever created, to other bizarre stats like range factor.
ERRORS as defined by MLB are completely useless for determining someones fielding prowess. If you DON'T get to a ball because you're immobile or lose a ball in the lights or misjudge it... NO ERROR. if you get to a ball and it hits your glove, its an error in most circumstances, unless the "official scorer" acknowledges that a normal player wouldn't have even gotten to the ball.
EVERY baseball fan with the tiniest amount of brain power realizes that ERRORS are worthless in every way possible and wishes MLB would change their official scoring system.
This is why new fielding stats have been created in the first place.
But the new fielding stats do not get enough exposure to actually be USED as a fantasy stat by any normal league.

Scoot wrote: If your pitcher gets wrecked you deserve to lose. It is not only true in H2H but roto also. Think about it what happens to that pitchers ERA, wins :-?
Also if you start a scrub, in a H2H league or roto league, and he hits 3 hrs then great job!!!! You deserve those points for taking that risk.


There is a MAJOR difference between how a pitcher getting wrecked and a scrub hitting 3 hrs effects a roto league vs a points league. In a point league, they WILL be the difference in victory for the week. And once you have that L on your record, you can't get it back. In a roto league, you will still feel the effect in the standings, but it will be nowhere near as severe. As an extreme example, if your pitcher only gets wrecked ONCE, it is good enough for a L in points, but in roto, you will still have the best ERA overall. If your opponent's scrub hits 3 hrs in points, he will probably win the week, but in roto, it wont help him too much in the standings.
So it comes down to WHEN your players do good and WHEN they do bad. Which is RIDICULOUS.

Scoot wrote:Most H2H leagues go 23 weeks for a regular season and then have 3 weeks for playoffs. That sounds like a full season to me. So if you want to be in the playoffs you will have to prove somekind of superiority over the course of the season.


Again, this isnt always true... I explained how I was in a H2H points league and was first in points, but winless through the first month of the season. Because EVERY week I scored the 2nd or 3rd most points for the week, but played the hottest team. Other cold teams would still get Ws playing colder teams. Then when my team cooled off, I still couldn't buy a win. Rare? yes. Unforgivable that its even possible? absolutely.

Scoot wrote:I am not sure what points you are trying to make here?????


My point is...
H2H sucks because of the luck involved in who your opponent is , and how one good or bad thing can effect the standings significantly.
Points suck because as others have stated they take value away from the catagories and just assign a player a flat vlaue. Therefore there is no worrying about hurting one category to help another. Any roster decisions come down to "who will score more points" PERIOD.
The reason the specific points-bashing points didnt come across in my original post is because I usually connect the two (H2H and points) These two sins usually go hand in hand with each other and other affronts on baseball sensibilities such as new stat categories.

H2H and points supporters cry "Reality". which is just plain DUMB.
No fantasy baseball game will ever approach reality. EVER
A double worth more than a single?
Not if theres two outs and theres a guy on third and either hit will bring him home and you never score yourself. Or if the next guy hrs and you both would have scored.
As pointed out, a strikeout CAN be better than a groundout IF the groundout is a double play. Did your league penalize GROUNDZILLA for all his double plays that killed rallies last year? Or only penalize Soriano's strikeouts? How is this "real"?
As already discussed, errors as written are BOGUS. but wait, errors as written play a part in pitchers ERA so in reality, that stat which we all use and love is ALSO flawed and actually has no bearing on whats really going on.
In mixed leagues, an NL pitcher is getting free strikeouts giving them more worth...not real.
Do you worry about having a fair mix of lefties and righties in your lineup or on your pitching staff? NOT AT ALL? ok...not anywhere close to real then.
Does every player on your team get the same benefit/disadvantage from the field theyre playing on that night? Or do you just use the real numbers they put up, one guy from a tiny park, one guy from a huge park, etc? Not only is this not real. Its impossible.
Do you ask your video games to be "real"? Would you like Bullet wounds and hammers to your head to help make the experience more real?
And a thousand other things that make the game NOT real.

The "real" arguement is so far from the truth its not even funny.

Roto works on so many levels. Thats the reason it caught on and became popular in the first place.

H2H appeals to those with smaller attention spans who need immediate gratification.

Points is for those who cant wrap their head around the concept that a just because HRS is a category and SBS is a category... does NOT mean a hr = a sb, since it will take 4 or 5 times as many hrs to win the hr category.

Roto is the easiest to learn and the hardest to master.
And thats what make it king.

Now are my points clear enough?



Yes. Your point is that you think that roto is king. This point is supported only by opinions, and drawn-out worse case senerios of H2H. I think I read only two facts in your long, exaggerated, and frankly insulting (to all H2H players). To prove my point I will list the true facts you presented, because listing your opinions would take too long.
FACTS
1. if you get to a ball and it hits your glove, its an error in most circumstances, unless the "official scorer" acknowledges that a normal player wouldn't have even gotten to the ball.-this is true as defined by the MLB rulebook.
2. Regarding a pitcher getting wrecked....In a point league, they WILL be the difference in victory for the week. -This too is true. But you go on to say that in a roto league the effects will not be as severe. So you are saying a roto team can never lose a championship or be kept out of the playoffs if a pitcher gets wrecked in a particular week? Sounds a little too easy to me.

That is it for facts...the rest of it is statements like... most inteligent baseball fans think or H2H sucks. Thanks for your opinions but I am not paying $5 for each one.
Basically your argument is you THINK that you are right.

I am not going to comment on your rude and meaningless opinions.

But I will address some of your one sided arguments.
You explain that you played a H2H league a lost the first 4 weeks but were one of the top point scorers. What happened after that? You probably did one of two things; keep your team together and stick it out, afterall you did score alot of points, or trade away your team like a fire sale, hence most likely worsening the situation. Either way your team sucked. B/c if you had the same team the whole time the hot streak was a fake and you didn't deserve a win. But if you traded away your whole team because you didn't have the patience then that is not anyones fault but your own.
You say, and others have too, that points take away value from the categories. That is the complete opposite of what they do, because by assigning specific points to catergories. By doing so you are expanding and defining player better. You say that points suck because you can forfiet a catergory. I am assuming you mean one of the traditional 5X5 catergories. NEWS FLASH there are more cats in baseball than BA, Hits, Runs, RBI, HR, and SB. Extra base hits is one that comes to mind, so are walks and strikeouts. Some good, some bad but all very real statistics in baseball.


As for these other things you are stating....
I have no idea what you are rambling on about "REAL". Not once did I try to state that H2H is more real than roto. Not once did I try to define "Reality". In fact I have no opinion on that topic, in regards to this argument. So maybe you should bring that up with someone who cares, because with me you are wasting your time.

I am not wrapping my head around the fact that roto says sb=hr. I actually think that roto and H2H are very similar in scoring when it comes to hrs. In roto you get the hr, rbi, and run. In my H2h league you get 1 pt for the run, 1pt for the rbi, and 4 for the hit. So both are awarding three cats but lets be "real" (since you brought it up), isn't a hr the hardest hit to get? then shouldn't it be awarded the most points? then shouldn't it be worth the most?

We could go on until someone died of old age arguing which is worse; groundouts of strikeouts, if errors are scored correctly according to MLB rulebook, and if a single is worth more than a double. But I will give it a shot....we do know this, strikeouts do not give an opportunity to put someone on and if you didn't know there is a chance for a double play on a strikeout. But with a ground ball you have many more opportunities for something positive to happen. So I think that most would rather have a groundball than a strikeout. I think that you should read up on the MLB rule book when it comes to errors, it does concede that some of it does rely on human judgement (but what part of baseball doesn't?) but there is also a very defined way for scorers to determine if an error is an error. Lets be real, a single is always worth more than a double, that one is stupid.

But what do I know I probably have a tiny brain with even smaller brain power, because I don't share the same opinion as you.

Finally, the only instant gratification I get is seeing people like you get worked up when something is said that they don't like, I only asked you what points were you trying to make and you took it as an insult to roto.

You nearly took me past my bedtime with this editorial.


H2H is king.
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Wed Feb 04, 2004 11:58 am

Hey, Scoot and others, are we talking about which catagories are important, or what system is better?

It sounds like Scoot likes his catagories the best, and thats cool, but Im not sure that argument belongs in this thread. Roto can incorporate every catagory you desire, just like h2h and points.
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