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I don't have Guthrie's starter-only BABIP but overall he's at .242. Say it with me: unsustainable.
Let's take all starters from 2006 with 170+ innings and a K/9 less than 6.0. Of those 28 pitchers, only five were able to allow less than a hit per inning (Clay Hensley was tops at 8.37 H/9). The same exercise for 2005 gives us five starters out of 43. What Guthrie is doing right now isn't even close to sustainable. He won't be under 6 H/9, or under 7 H/9, or under 8 H/9. He's highly unlikely to be under 9 H/9.
The good news is that even if Guthrie had allowed a hit per inning to date, his WHIP would still be 1.14. His control has been amazing. He hasn't flashed this kind of control since Double A in 2003. We have to tip our cap to Leo Mazzone here.
Walking fewer than 2.0 per nine actually is sustainable. We regularly see 10-15 guys do it each year and I don't see why Guthrie can't be one of them. Maybe his control evades him if Mazzone leaves, but as long as it's there Guthrie will be helpful in WHIP.
Guthrie has a 48.4% groundball rate, good for 14th in the league. This development will definitely keep his home run rate nice and low. His 5.7% HR per flyball rate isn't sustainable, but he'll still be strong in HR prevention.
Plugging some reasonable peripherals into the Dierkes-o-matic Component ERA spreadsheet, I like what I see. Let's give him these peripherals:
The result? A 3.61 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. If this control doesn't escape him and Guthrie keeps throwing grounders, the Orioles have found a stud on the waiver wire. I have to admit I came into this exercise thinking Guthrie was a fluke. But his control and GB% aren't luck and even with major hit rate regression Guthrie could be among the ten best starters in the league.
hot4tx wrote:I would like to revisit this one real quick:
for the guy that called out everyone that was saying he hadn't walked many people and was showing great control.
...mostly because it was the single largest jerk move I've seen on these boards and because after a month he's still been showing very good control and not walking many people.
Again I know pitchers have had it for a few months and lost it, so I'm not saying he's Roy Halladay, but he's looked very good so far and I'll continue riding the hot arm as long as the matchup isn't horrible.
he gets a good amount of groundballs, nothing amazing.
the finish of his delivery is a bit weird, seems like he gets his shoulder out there and his fastball has some nasty movement to the right, it sits in the low to mid 90's but he can put a little extra on it when he needs to, the highest i remember him working is 97/98.
his mid 80's breaking ball is real good and when he hits his spots i really don't see why he can't be a good strikeout pitcher, certainly not 9k/9ip but 6 sounds reasonable.
this is all really dependent on whether or not he's throwing strikes and avoiding piling up the walks, because no, he does not have great command, but maybe working with mazzone he's fixing this.
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