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AmericanShipbuilding wrote:Ron Shandler pointed out some interesting statistical warning signs on Upton yesterday: His contact rate is 66% (down 10% from his career averages), and his BABIP is over .440 (as opposed to his historical level of .340). Those two things combined suggest a falloff is coming.
That's not to say it WILL happen, but to expect any player to sustain a .440 BABIP is highly unreasonable. (Still a fantastic player, of course.)
Cobaltred wrote:Some guys strike out a lot but can still hit for average: see Abreu, Bobby (not in 2007); Ortiz, David; and Soriano, Alfonso.
dclark0699 wrote:How long has BABIP been around? Prior to this year I knew nothing of it...and now everyone speaks of it like it is the all-decisive wonder stat.
I'd have to say that people who rake line drives are going to have a BABIP of like .380-.400. Instead of labeling this as preposterous and due for a collapse, maybe look at the quality of contact the player is making on their balls in play instead of whether or not they are hits.
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