Yoda wrote:Laean wrote:i was with you on the original post, but then your 2nd post said he's "still a 35 hr" player.
it was obvious to me (and should've been to anyone else with sense) that his april was a hot streak, and that he was going to slow down substantially. he wasn't going to break any records. for every 14 hr month he was going to have this year, he is going to have a 5 hr month as well.
when i traded arod and wheeler for utley and papelbon during arod's hot streak in one league some people were riding me hard nonstop for a few days. they all stopped talking now. especially seeing as how bj ryan just went on DL for the season for me, i have no regrets about that trade.
with all that said, those 35 hr seasons were in arod's down years. that means he's not a "35 hr hitter." that means he's a "35 hr hitter at his worst." i think, on average, he should be around 43-48.
I still wouldn't have made that trade but that's just me.
50 is well within his reach still.
i'm not saying i ripped him off by any means. i was trying to sell high, but i think i just ended up selling at fair value.
i also agree that he can hit 50 hrs. i have a bet with a friend that he'll hit between 50-55, he says over 55.