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d18Mike wrote:Yet another Bonderman first inning blow-up last night. It's now officially as puzzling as E. Santana's Home/Road splits. His first inning ERA this year is over 15.00
This from Sportsline:
Bonderman was bounced around for three runs in the first inning before settling down. Opponents are batting .421 in the first against Bonderman -- .229 in every other inning -- and have scored 14 of 23 runs against him in the opening inning this year. "I don't think it's just this season," Bonderman said. "And that's the problem."
StlSluggers wrote:After watching another mediocre (if not poor) performance from Bonderman last night, I hit the stat sites in search of data that make me feel better. I have to admit that I was surprised by what I found.
First, let's focus on Bonderman's problem his last two outings. He's given up 20 hits in just 11 innings while walking only 2 batters. My first assumption was that he was just getting unlucky, so I was expecting to see a high BABIP or BHIP rating supporting my assumption. I found the opposite.
Bonderman's BABIP over the last two games was only slightly over his average from the last two years, which was right around .330. Conventional wisdom for BABIP says that most pitchers will revert to the league average of ~.300 since this variable is defensively dependent. However, his history suggests that his BABIP is actually higher than the league average. In other words, he's aberrant by nature.
Then I looked up his BHIP, which is more pitcher-dependent. I found that he was on the wrong side of this average, too, as illustrated by this table:
Here again, we see that his BHIP over the last two years has been consistently higher than the MLB average. Furthermore, we can also see that his current BHIP for 2007 is well below that average. After reading, that I had to assume that his hot start was actually even luckier than I had assumed. I figured he wasn't that good, but I tempered my pessimism by focusing on his extraordinary K/BB ratio.
And that's where I found something interesting:
Bonderman has walked exactly 5 batters in 39 innings of work this year. His K-rate has remained on par with his last two years. Thus t follows that his K/BB rate has skyrocketed from 2.56 in 2005 and 3.16 in 2006 to an astounding 6.60 here in 2007.
Putting all this together, I had to ask these questions:
Could Bonderman's recent WHIP troubles be a result of him throwing too many strikes?
Does he actually need to be throwing more balls in order to keep hitters off balance?
StlSluggers wrote:I'll give 'er a go. There are others here who could give you a technically-superior explanation, but I'm pretty sure I can give you a quick synopsis.
BHIP% calculates the ratio of ground balls that end up as hits (generally, that would be singles). Without going too deeply into the theory, BHIP% says that a pitcher's basic skill set will result in X% of ground balls ending up as singles and that number will be different for each pitcher. There will be inevitable variations, but the theory is that pitchers will tend to regress towards their natural mean if nothing else changes. When analyzing BHIP% numbers, you can check variation within a pitcher's BHIP% calculation to see if there is an explanation for that pitcher's stats. If a pitcher has a particularly low WHIP as well as a BHIP% that is below his personal average, you can bet that his WHIP will probably be on the rise soon provided that no other factors (namely, infield defense) have changed dramatically.
BABIP is a little more broad. Instead of focusing on ground balls that end up as singles, it focuses on all balls hit into play. Home runs are excluded from this calculation as they are never technically in play. BABIP suggests that there is a natural mean for all pitchers when it comes to the number of balls that end up as hits after being placed in play. I don't have the long-term history of the calculation, but I do know that it has been right at .300 for quite a few years now. The theory is that few pitchers have the ability to vary wildly from this average for an extended duration (Smoltz is a good example of a great pitcher that falls into this average). You can use this stat in the same way that you use BHIP% by checking to see if a pitcher's current stats make sense given his BABIP ratio.
The easiest way to keep the two separate in your head is to change the name of BHIP% to singles average.
reynolds80 wrote:Is this a very useful stat and do you know if anyone has these online?
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