sportsaddict wrote:As a Bush owner, I hope everyone is right about him. I think he'll be a solid starter this season, but I think we are going a bit overboard with these peripheral stats and these sabermetrics. I think maybe instead of blaming all of Bush's poor outings on bad luck, we should just admit that he pitched like crap. He's extremely inconsistent- he's good when he's on, and other times he gets shelled. We are making too many excuses for Bush because his k/9 or bb/9 or whatever looks good. This year, he's had some very good starts, and he's also not gotten it done in other starts. Not because of bad luck- because he's inconsistent. Once he gets some consistency I think we'll see him blossom.
Well, rather than saying he's been unlucky, let me put it differently. All these peripheral stats that I've been mentioning are a much better predictor of how he'll pitch in the future than his current ERA and WHIP are.
I haven't seen him pitch, so I can't attest anecdotally to whether I've seen pop-ups fall in for hits or groundballs find holes. But I can tell you that his GB/FB/LD percentages don't match up with his BABIP, which indicates that over a long period of time, his batting average against on balls in play will begin to reflect how well batters are actually hitting him, and his ERA and WHIP will go down as a result.