GotowarMissAgnes wrote:Yoda wrote:GotowarMissAgnes wrote:yossarian wrote:Eh. I got him for nothing off the wire. I'll ride him as long as he's hot. As long as you don't have to drop somebody of value, I don't see what the problem is with picking him up and riding his hot streak. What do you have to lose with this? What's the point of arguing against picking him up, at least short term?
I guess I would say that if you are always chasing the guy who was hot last week, you are very much in danger of either dumping or missing out on picking up the guys that will be good for a longer period of time.
I like playing the hot hand. I usually have about two spots on my roster that I rotate in and out with whoever is hot. It works if you do it right.
I'd like to see the proof. Anything works 'if you do it right". But, this particular strategy assumes that you can predict the future. Since lots of evidence shows it is impossible to tell who will be hot next week based on who is currently hot, I have a lot fo skepticism about this.
To be clear, by proof, I'd want evidence that the pick-ups you make based on who you think has the hot hand consistently outperform a player randomly selected from among the top 25 players available as a free agent. If you are willing to participate, I'm willing to help keep track of the data.
Maybe I should clarify. I always leave couple of spots open for guys that I can rotate in and out. If a guy consistently stays hot like my free agent pickes this year: Ollie, Al Reyes, Curtis Granderson, Kelvim Escobar, then you don't end up playing that game.
You can't blanketly say these are the top 25 players that I will hang onto no matter what happens. You have to be flexible and picking up a hot player that stays that way for the year is a HUGE part of winning.
EDIT: The guys that those four replaced from the draft are: Anthony Reyes, Corey Hart, Chad Billingsley and Rafael Soriano. My team would not be nearly as good if I didn't pick up those at-the-time-hot players.