yes, that is precisely my point. if we're giving him props for his accomplishments, of course i can't just say his first half of 05 was luck so lets disregard it or something. i mean, it's done, he's done it. i have to give him probs for that, and i freely do. but if we're talking about what he can reasonably be expected to do in the future, unless he shows another half a season like he did in 05, i'm not ready to say that he's a 40+ hr .300+ avg hitter year in and year out yet.
I'm not saying that it's not fair to Derrek Lee for you to disregard his first half in 05 because you're not "giving him enough props."
I'm saying it because it's a senseless thing to do for prognostication purposes as well.
The only thing I will concede, based on his huge early 2005, is that he will not have a season during which he hits as well as he did in the first half of that year as he will in the second half.
You are the one so eager to split his season in half. You think we should use all of his surrounding play (not the first half of '05) to project what he'll do in the future.
I'm saying that you take ALL of it. You can't leave some out and make an argument based on the remaining numbers. He DID do what he did in early 05. One might even say he earned the right to hit .380 for one half by hitting .280 the other.
It's called variance. Nobody can hit .380 with that kind of power for a full season besides Barry Bonds.
Now, and in early 2005, we are, and were, getting some of Derrek Lee's high end variance. The high end variance we're getting right now is, if anything, indicative that the high end that we got in 2005 was no illusion, albeit unsustainable over the long term. All players have ups and downs, you can't base an argument on removing a players best "ups."
Besides, as I said before, he has hit .313 over the last 362 healthy games, and he's hitting better than 100 points higher than that right now...
Yeah, I'm going to challenge someone who, in light of the above, still thinks he's magically going to turn back into the hitter that he was in Florida. If you can't see the polish that he's added, then you haven't been watching.