Dugout wrote:Any insite on how this career 5.00 era, 1.5 whip and 5.2 SO/9 32 year old turned superman with a 2.91 era, 1.11 whip and 8.2 SO/9?
No way he duplicates last year but do you see him coming close? Most of the mocks I've seen don't believe he'll do it again since he's not being drafted until rounds 10-15.
Oh yeah, great forum!
The most important stat to look at is his 207 K's compared to only 56 BB's compared to 87/38 the previous year.
I see him being solid again this year but not as great as last season. I think maybe 17 wins is within reach for him.
I got to agree with this statement. I wouldn't draft him anticipating the same level of success, but that's the same way I feel with Halladay.
There are three things his detractors site as evidence of him not repeating: He's never done it before, most of his success was against inferior competition, and he faltered down the stretch. I have to point out though that it doesn't matter that he hasn't done it before. Plenty of pitchers finally learn how to pitch at an advanced age (Moyer, for example) and they keep it up for more than one season.
As far as the inferior competition goes, yes, he did pitch well against Detroit and Cleveland; however, he did pitch some gems against some good hitting teams, such as 7 inning of shutout, 1 hit ball agains the Yankees.
He did falter down the stretch, but not that badly. He did end the season with a dominating game as well. His struggles can be easily explained by him never having pitched that many innings before. At least that is the way I look at it.
If you need pitching somewhere around the 12th round I wouldn't hesitate taking the guy.