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Wharton93 wrote:Snell broke out last year, but kudos to forumers who 'predicted' one this year. Not only did he win 14 games last year, he basically Ked 1 guy per IP in the 2nd half. You can count the number of guys who did both of these things.
As for saying how lucky he was because his run support was high--that's taking the right stat but using it wrongly. If you want to know why he was 'lucky' to win 14, it probably had to do with his good pitching. In his 14 wins, he gave up these ER: 0 0 2 5 1 2 0 1 1 2 1 5 2 1.
In his 14 wins, he gave up more than 2 ER exactly 2 times--so he needed help from that 'lucky' Pirates offense twice. The statisics that get tossed out make it sound like he needed 5.18 runs per game to get a win. Not true. I am sure most 14+ game winners need more than 2 runs scored once in a while. In the 2 games that he gave up more then 2 ER, the Pirates scored 23 runs. If your team scores 11.5 runs for you, you are likely to get a little sloppy and give up a few extra baserunners/runs as you just try to get the game over with.
FWIW, he had another 4 games where he gave up 3 ER or less but didn't get a Win.
That being said, nobody should have paid for Snell to win 14 games again--wins in general is a luck business, especially in today's game. But you should pay for skills and his K rate alone, particularly in the 2nd half of 2006, make him a good buy. Whether he wins 10 or 16 is anyone's guess.
jlm53089 wrote:and wtf is with jason bay, he needs to start hitting.
Mercer Boy wrote:;-D
He's got good stuff...might be the first Pirates pitcher to beat the "Curse of the Pirates' Ace" in over 5 years.
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