RAmst23 wrote:josebach wrote:dmendro wrote:Ok, I am going to go out on a limb here and say what you value is not important. It's what the league values.
If you go into the draft thinking pitching is more valuable, and you draft santana the first round, and then follow up with Oswalt or carpenter the second round, and no other pitchers have gone, you just missed out on the top 18 or so hitters in baseball.
You have to play your draft. You are playing to beat the other managers, not some invisible roto number's goal.
It's like poker, you beat the player, not the cards.
When does the league ever value something that you don't? Sure, the occasional person might punt a category, but generally speaking, doesn't everybody in the league have the same objective?
Sure, if you draft 11th in a 12 team league, you may modify your rankings slightly to accomodate for what the 12th team has already drafted, but overall this should have a very small impact on what your team looks like. If you're worrying about what your opponent is doing during the draft, you're worrying about the wrong thing. Besides, I don't know of any fantasy player worth his weight that would recommend taking three pitchers with their first three picks.
Maybe I just missed your point.
I think you missed his point a little bit... He's saying you need to be flexible with your gameplan and adjust when adjustments are necessary. Though what I disagree with a little is your bit. I think it matters greatly what your opponents are doing. Sure you should have your own gameplan and methods. You say if you worry about your opponents, your worrying about the wrong thing. However, that's the whole basis of fantasy baseball. You're playing against other people and the stats their teams accumulate.
If your goal is to have alot of speed or saves, for example, other owners drafting these categories early affects your gameplan. It will cause you to adjust, either by drafting certain players earlier than you wanted to or altering plans altogether.
Anyway, I tend to lean towards better hitters when drafting. It's hard to predict wins and ERA with pitchers, which is 2 out of the 4 cats your evaluating. That's a rough percentage.
dmendro makes a great post here . Its more important to go into your draft with an open mind than to have a set game plan. Sure you can poor over thousands of ADP reports and trends but you never really know how your league is going to value a player. Yes most leagues generally are the same in terms of how they value certain categories. Saves and steals are great, same old story. But every league will overvalue some category or player no matter what. So the best strategy is to play what the draft gives you. Always go for the best value no matter what your game plan was.
I personally value hitting more than pitching because of the same old reasons. Pitching is volatile, and pitchers get hurt. But i'm not going to reach for a bat if there is a better pitcher on the board. I'll take what the draft gives me...