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What is Ryan Zimmerman's value now?

PostPosted: Thu Apr 12, 2007 9:54 am
by brock middlebrook
The Nats stink - hurting his R's and RBI's

The Nats are not going to run - killing any SB's


He also K'd 120 times last year and pitchers have had time to figure him out.

I think his value has dropped significantly. What say ye?

PostPosted: Thu Apr 12, 2007 10:11 am
by Inukchuk
I would agree that his value will fall, but by no fault of his own. He is a very good hitter, and I could actually see his K's going down. He's always been very good in the AVG department.

However, I do agree that his team will really hurt his peripheral numbers. It's too bad, really. I think he'll be stuck in Washington for a while, too...

PostPosted: Thu Apr 12, 2007 10:51 am
by great gretzky
although, this wasn't an issue that couldn't have easily been predicted. The nats clearly were going to stink.

PostPosted: Thu Apr 12, 2007 10:52 am
by Geek
He belongs on the bench until the Nats look like at least a AA club.

PostPosted: Thu Apr 12, 2007 11:03 am
by klvrdude
I was just pondering the same question b/c someone offered me him for my Weeks. The more I thought about it, the less appealing he becomes. Even if he does heat up no one else around him is going to be a big contributor, not even the Meat Hook - NL Style.

This same type question can be asked of Cordero as well.

Although, if you're an optimist, now's the time to buy :-D

PostPosted: Thu Apr 12, 2007 11:20 am
by stumpak
I never understood the prevailing fetish for Zimmerman over the offseason. As stated, its no surprise that Nats are horrible. Even if goes .300/20, which he won't we are talking like 75R/75RBI. Factor in few SBs and this is not a top 10 3B, much less the top 5 status that a few people were asserting.

It is quite possible that Mora or some similarly stinky player will have better total value just because they are well-positioned in a decent line-up and wil cream Zimmerman in R and RBI.

PostPosted: Thu Apr 12, 2007 11:21 am
by Big Pimpin
I think he'll be ok. He won't score 100 or knock in 120, but I think he'll still be a decent play. No matter how bad the team is, just about every #3 hitter at least approaches 90/90. I mean the Nats are not going to be shut out every game this year.

I still see him as a top 10 3B this year, and I'd rank him even higher in a keeper.

PostPosted: Thu Apr 12, 2007 11:44 am
by stumpak
Big Pimpin wrote:I think he'll be ok. He won't score 100 or knock in 120, but I think he'll still be a decent play. No matter how bad the team is, just about every #3 hitter at least approaches 90/90. I mean the Nats are not going to be shut out every game this year.

I still see him as a top 10 3B this year, and I'd rank him even higher in a keeper.


I don't follow your logic. If a team only scores 600 runs, there is no guarantee that the #3 hitter will get 90 RBIs. The Nats really can be this bad, and ust wait until they start unloading every last valauble part and Zimmerman - truely will have a AAA line-up around him after the trade deadline.

PostPosted: Thu Apr 12, 2007 12:06 pm
by pepperoncino
his value is at about the lowest its gonna get right now...

PostPosted: Thu Apr 12, 2007 12:07 pm
by Big Pimpin
stumpak wrote:
Big Pimpin wrote:I think he'll be ok. He won't score 100 or knock in 120, but I think he'll still be a decent play. No matter how bad the team is, just about every #3 hitter at least approaches 90/90. I mean the Nats are not going to be shut out every game this year.

I still see him as a top 10 3B this year, and I'd rank him even higher in a keeper.


I don't follow your logic. If a team only scores 600 runs, there is no guarantee that the #3 hitter will get 90 RBIs. The Nats really can be this bad, and ust wait until they start unloading every last valauble part and Zimmerman - truely will have a AAA line-up around him after the trade deadline.


I've had this discussion before about Zimm so I'm stealing some of Amazinz's research (but you can find it on Retrosheet if you're so inclined).

These are the stats last year for players hitting in the #3 hole for all NL teams:

<pre>
Team AB R RBI
St. Louis 613 138 158
NY Mets 614 141 136
Houston 612 114 127
Colorado 622 117 121
LA Dodgers 652 109 117
Florida 633 115 116
Philadelphia 630 120 108
Cincinnati 662 94 107
Atlanta 643 113 106
Chicago Cubs 621 97 106
San Francisco 654 101 96
Milwaukee 632 86 93
Washington 644 95 93
Pittsburgh 645 95 92
Arizona 669 94 86
San Diego 624 83 78
</pre>


If Zimm stays the 3-hole (and I don't really see why he wouldn't), he's almost assuredly going to put up 80/80 and likely to approach 100/100, regardless of how bad the surrounding cast of characters is.