hot4tx wrote:Even if Acta is not an aggressive baserunning manager, Lopez will run.
What makes you think this?
The Nats were dead last in ST in number of steals attempted.
Through the first week of play, the Nats are dead last in MLB in number of steals attempted, one of only two teams that attempted ZERO steals the entire first week.
Prior to last year, Lopez had never attempted more than 22 steals in a year. Even if you pro-rate based on 600 plate appearances, he never was on track for more than 40 SB attempts in any major league season.
The evidence that "Lopez will run" is based on ONE year, playing under two of the most aggressive base running managers in baseball (Cincy has already attempted 10 SBs this week; like FRobby, they are a very aggressive running team).
hot4tx wrote:If the Nats start out playing "his way" and it doesn't work, he will try other methods.
In other words, you believe Manny Acta is either stupid, a liar, or ignorant
Either he lied about how he thinks aggressive baserunning hurts a team,
he believes it but is going to ignore it and stupidly run despite the fact that he believes it will make him lose more games,
he's so ignorant despite all his years coaching baseball that he does not already know what works and what does not work.
OK, but I think you are crazy to believe that.
hot4tx wrote:Billy Beane doesn't believe in being aggressive on the basepaths, but Kendall led all catchers in SBs last year.
Care to share any more meaningless information?
The A's attempted just 91 steals last year, ranking 25th in the league (Cincy attempted 157; Washington attempted 195).
Kendall had all of 11 SBs last year, leading the A's. This proves what? Because Kendall attempted 16 SBs, Lopez will run? Does that make ANY sense?
hot4tx wrote:Lopez was successfull over 78% (44 out of 56) times when he stole. Even if Acta doesn't institute an aggressive running offense, Lopez will get his.
And if you think 40 SBs is high (which I don't as long as Lopez stays healthy), then what do you expect? 35? That's still up there in Furcal, Rollins, Jeter territory.
If you honestly don't think he gets 30 steals after watching him the first week of the season, that's your issue. If you drafted him, you did it for his SBs meaning you thought he would steal a decent number of bases. If you completely devalue a player after 1 week of the season, that's how to lose fantasy baseball.
I think he'll attempt fewer than 30 SBs. I think he'll get fewer than 25.
What I think he will do has little to do with the first week of the season. I was talking about this 3 months ago.
Lopez's value has taken two significant hits in the last 6 months. First, the trade to Washington zapped his HR numbers. In Cincy, a strong HR park, he's a 15 HR guy. In RFK, he's a 4-8 HR guy. In 22 plate appearances in RFK he has zero HRs. In Cincy's home park he averaged an extra base hit every 12.5 plate appearances. In RFK, he gets an extra base hit every 20 plate appearances. Over his career, Lopez has averaged 15 HRs per full season. That 15 HR average was made up of 10 HRs at home in Cincy and 5 on the road, on average.
He'll still average 5 on the road.
But, he is not going to average 10 in RFK. He's hit zero in his first 50 games. Guesstimate his average as 0-5 HRs at home for a full 81 games in RFK.
Acta's arrival provides the second hit. You can't steal bases if the manager won't run. Lopez has basically been traded from managers who typically attempted a stolen base at least once per game to a manager who attempts stolen bases less than once a week. It doesn't take a genius to understand that Acta is never going to let him attempt 50-60 stolen bases. My best guess, based on Acta's comments and the way he behaved in ST and this first week, is that Lopez probably is allowed to attempt 25-30. Given his usual success rate, my best guess is that he gets 20-25 SBs, with at best an outside shot at 30 SB.
Best case scenario: Lopez get 40 attempts steals around 30 bases.
Worst case scenario: Acta is like Beane, and nobody attempts more than 20 SBs, and Lopez gets around 15.
Now, I kept Lopez in my keeper league, because I agree you don't want to panic and I have Drew and Kelly Johnson for insurance. I did not draft him in any league, because he was WAY overvalued.
The facts are pretty clear to anyone who looks at them. It's not MY issue or panic based on a week of data.
It's a cold hard look at the facts.
Rather than rant about meaningless numbers like Jason Kendall's numbers, address the facts.
Why should we think Lopez will hit 15 HRs, given that he has ZERO HRs in his first 50 games in RFK?
Why should we think Lopez will be allowed to attempt 50-60 SBs, given that his manager has said he will limit running and his manager had his team attempt the fewest SBs in ST and in the first week of the season?