godallahstar wrote: Chrisy Moltisanti wrote:
If H. Matsui was hitting 40 and 50 HR every year, what is 35?
he hit 50 once, 42 twice, and everything else was in the 30s.
iwamura hit 44 the other year.
he's coming here at a younger age,
if anything, the reason he wont do well is his bb/k issues
Power peak is what, 30-32 years old?
So the greatest HR hitter in Japanese history hits 31 HR at his power peak and you're thinking good HR totals from Iwamura are in the bag? If one thing has been proven it's that HR power is severely decreased with the league change. Even in Jap fantasy baseball, Iwamura should only be considered a 30 HR guy, so if he gets 20 here feel lucky.
Here are Iwamura's stats in Japan: 3580 AB's, 550 Runs, 188 HR's, 570 RBI's, .300 BA, .366 OBP, .519 SLG, .154 Run average, .053 HR average, .159 RBI average.
If we figure on 600 AB's this year for Iwamura and do the math generated above, his stats might look like this: 82 Runs/ 18 HR's/ 75 RBI's/ .287 BA/ .340 OBP/ .441 SLG.
Iwamura's Yakult Swallows home park has the smallest dimensions of any Jap park. It's park factor, relative to other Jap parks, is #2 highest overall.