godallahstar wrote:Jackie Treehorn wrote:I'd be cautious. I got sucked into the hype with Harden, Duke, Felix, and some others last year that were hyped due to "filthy stuff" and great second halves. I ended up filling my pitching staff with a bunch of those guys and got screwed. I'd think it's reasonable to expect 12 wins, 160 K's, ERA around 4, and a whip of 1.30. Anything beyond that is gravy. Take these types of guys (Anibal Sanchez, Hamels, Hill, Chuck James, etc.) in the late rounds, but go for the veteran guys in the first half of the draft.
you have to do some of the researching yourself, though.
people like chuck james or duke really aren't flossing great stuff,
people buy into their numbers or a few good string of starts.
but you really can't try and argue with Harden or Felix having "filthy stuff", they do, they're incredible.
and if you've seen rich hill's curveball, you would say the same thing,
but one pitch isn't going to do it for you in the majors. which is a big reason i'm not very high on him.
knowing what a pitcher is throwing, the quality of it, and his command, or any other issues he may come across, is very very helpful in fantasy baseball.
I didn't argue that Harden or Felix don't have filthy stuff. It doesn't matter that much to me. I'm arguing that it's not worth spending early picks on these types of guys. How many folks have wasted early picks on Felix, Harden, Prior, etc., etc., in the last few years based on the hype around their "filthy stuff"? In the second half of the draft take a chance if they're still around, but don't spend picks on them in first 10 rounds when you can get more established, reliable starters later. I think Hill falls into that category this year. Grab him near the end, but don't expect the tear he went on late last year to carry over for the whole season this year.