great gretzky wrote:not that this would lose you a league or anything, but why would someone take holliday and ortiz, when vlad and hafner were still there? I knwo OF is a touch more shallow this year, but one would think you would either want the two biggest bats you can get, or go johan, huge bat, or huge bat, steals. Not holliday and ortiz. I like holliday and all, but still.
I thought the Ortiz pick was good, but I didnt agree with Holliday that early.
Well, I knew that my Holliday pick was earlier than most would have taken him, but I was projecting Holliday somewhere between 5th and 8th overall this season (102 R, 35 HR, 117 RBI, 11 Stl, .319 Avg), and obviously I wasn't going to see him again at pick 36. I'm still a little nervous about that projection, as it seems higher than just about anybody's view of Holliday, but I think that's actually about what he's going to do. He's got a high beta, I'll admit, and I had to swallow hard before making that pick, but I couldn't make any other pick in good conscience. Obviously, I understand if people think my Holliday projection was a little optimistic - most people project a real return to earth there.
Hafner and Ortiz were somewhat close in my book, but I had Ortiz with a few more RBI and HR to compensate for a lower BA. Ortiz's 1B eligibility in Yahoo made the difference for me. As it turns out, that eligibility came in handy, as I ended up drafting no other 1B except Wigginton, and another full-time DH in Thomas to boot.
For the record, I had Vlad at 12th overall (94 R, 32 HR, 112 RBI, 12 Stl, .321 Avg). The biggest difference in my relative projections of Vlad and Holliday came from trending relative to age, along with Vlad's mild tendency to miss time in recent years. If I had had a third pick on the turn though, it would have been Vlad.
I liked my team on the whole, especially the quality of the pitching staff given the rounds they were picked. If my Holiday projection isn't too far wrong, nobody gets any stress fractures, and Taveras steals 55 bases, I think I'm set.