thedude wrote:The Loveable Losers wrote:RynMan wrote:Steve-o wrote:RynMan wrote:PECOTA also has him pegged for an excellent season - 20/20 with a .295 AVG.
The PECOTA cards are almost like Zips in that they do not attempt to project playing time.
Yeah, you are right on that one. However, it still speaks to how the system views his talent. If given a full season, he would produce a very nice year.
Young players with lots of talent that produce big numbers in small sample sizes can put PECOTA into fits so I don't know how much I'd read into that. Take a look at Lincecum's PECOTA forecast for example. I love Lincecum's future as a pitcher but those PECOTA numbers are a tad on the ridiculous side.
Well Kemp actually has a few full seasons of minor league ball which is what PECOTA is basing its predictions off of. True PECOTA can't tell if Kemp has a hole in his swing, but it can tell that it didn't hurt him in the minors.
There's definitely more to go on with Kemp so his projection shouldn't be ridiculously out of line. But I wouldn't be surprised with it being off by 15-20% due to his sheer physical skills allowing him to play well at lower levels despite what other people have mentioned about him not being able to handle a curveball.