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Kip Wells

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Kip Wells

Postby 123inningplz » Tue Mar 13, 2007 2:57 pm

Anyone else impressed yet?

His line today against a Twins lineup with pretty much their starting team and against Santana no less: 3ip, 2h, 1bb, 2k, 4 groundouts.

His last game, he gave up 6 hits but pitched out of jams trusting his defense to handle groundballs and a strikeout.

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Postby j_d_mcnugent » Tue Mar 13, 2007 3:53 pm

i've been keeping a careful eye on both wells and looper, more so because i am a cards fan than for fantasy purposes.

what he has going for him:

the duncan factor

kip is a vet and he is really buying into the dave duncan program whose successful projects include woody williams and jeff suppan (a carpenter comp would be asking too much). basically, kip saw suppan's contract and got jealous. he has pledged to do whatever duncan says. previous duncan projects brett tomko and sidney pondscum failed in part because they wanted to do things their way.

fitting the cardinal philosophy

the dave duncan/cardinals philosophy is built around keeping the ball on the ground---minimize homers, use your defense, get double plays. kip's career g/f is 1.51. suppan was at about that level with the cards and usually a bit lower prior to joining the cards. chris carpenter is around 2.00 with the cardinals. this suggests wells is a good candidate for the duncan program.

once upon a time he had some decent numbers

3.58 era/1.35 whip in 2002, 3.28 era/1.25 whip in 2003. career k/9 is 6.55 which isnt great by any means but there are worse options. about 1.5k/9 better than suppan (i know thats not saying much).

the cardinal offense

edmonds is older. rolen wasnt that great last year. duncan probably wont be as good. still, there is this pujols guy. the cards seem to keep scoring runs. jeff suppan was twice a 16 game winner in his three year cardinal stint. jason marquis had 14 wins with a 6.02 era last year. wells could probably win 14-16 with a mid 4 era.

what he's got going against him:

*he is kip wells.
*he sucked the last three years (blood clot and broken foot last year, i dont know what his excuses are for the other years).
*he isnt known for being particularly durable.
*while his spring numbers look great no one has really been raving about his stuff. maybe its just that there have been more interesting stories in camp. maybe its just that he's been getting outs from people who will be bagging groceries in a week.

my conclusion: jeff suppan like upside...probably a tick higher on the k/9 than soup was. kip wells like down side. translation: someone to think about in NL only or deeper mixed leagues. not likely someone you want to draft in a 12 team mixed league, but you might pick him up for a stretch if he throws a few good games.

the scouting report is pretty similar for looper as well.
Last edited by j_d_mcnugent on Tue Mar 13, 2007 5:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby Mercer Boy » Tue Mar 13, 2007 4:47 pm

If Wells isn't going to full counts and/or walking everyone, he can be a good pitcher. He has pretty good stuff but normally runs his pitch count up so high that he can only go 5 innings. Or, when he starts getting into trouble with throwing balls, he leaves pitches in the zone that get crushed.

If he's on a winning team and doesn't have to worry about being perfect and doesn't have weird injuries like blisters, there's a chance he could turn in a good year. I guess I will have to keep an eye on him in his first couple starts this year. ;-D
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Postby stumpak » Tue Mar 13, 2007 5:25 pm

The Suppan parallel was exactly what I was thinking. At best a horrible fantasy pitcher with an atrocious WHIP gets turned into a marginal guy who is useful in deep leagues. At worst he still sucks and single handedly destroys your ratios. Personally, I would take a wait and see approach that extends beyond 3 IP in ST. If he still looks good in May he may be worth a bite if you have some injuries and need to take risks. No one will be snapping him up in mixed leagues in the meantime.
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