Keeper ADPs versus Redraft ADPs

[GotowarMissAgnes]

This note is the result of my draft last year. I was really impressed by Justin Verlander and using ADPs had planned to pick him around round 14 in my 16 team league. I missed him by two slots. Why? Well, the basic reason was that I relied on redraft ADPs, rather than keeper ADPs. So, learn from my mistake. Here's a list of guys who have the biggest movement forward in keeper drafts. The keeper ADPs are an average from the mockdraftcentral and the sportsfanatics keeper drafts. The redraft ADPs are a mix of Yahoo numbers and the rotoauthority expert list.

Here's the guys who move up at least 12 spots (one round in a standard league). The first number is their redraft ADP. The second number is their keeper ADP. The third number is the number of picks earlier they may be picked in a keeper draft.

Redraft ADP Player Keeper ADP Change
282.3 Alex Gordon (3B) 83.5 -198.8
283.7 Edwin Encarnacion (3B) 128 -155.7
301 Anibal Sanchez (P) 149 -152
290 Chris Young (OF) 142 -148
301 Philip Hughes (P) 153 -148
244.6 Adrian Gonzalez (1B) 108.5 -136.1
301 Homer Bailey (P) 168.5 -132.5
279.4 Chris Duncan (OF) 154.5 -124.9
244 Carlos Quentin (OF) 119.5 -124.5
290.8 Luis Castillo 170 -120.8
287.2 Chuck James (P) 174 -113.2
183 Adam LaRoche (1B) 79.5 -103.5
283.3 B.J. Upton (3B) 181.5 -101.8
301 John Maine (P) 207.5 -93.5
208.3 Ian Kinsler (2B) 116.5 -91.8
301 Mike Pelfrey (P) 210 -91
237.9 Clay Hensley 150 -87.9
280.3 Jonathan Broxton (P) 192.5 -87.8
268 Cliff Lee (P) 182.5 -85.5
274.3 Mike Jacobs 191 -83.3
216.3 Mark Teahen (3B) 135 -81.3
285 Matt Garza (P) 204.5 -80.5
286.5 Anthony Reyes (P) 207.5 -79
301 Gerald Laird (C) 222.5 -78.5
286 Aaron Rowand (OF) 209 -77
224.4 Chad Tracy (3B) 150.5 -73.9
177.1 Adam Wainwright (P) 106 -71.1
301 Andy Marte (3B) 231.5 -69.5
220.2 Jhonny Peralta 151 -69.2
301 Chris Duffy (OF) 234 -67
279.8 Kevin Youkilis 213 -66.8
301 Kevin Kouzmanoff (3B) 236 -65
140.8 Jeff Francoeur (OF) 77.5 -63.3
192 Russell Martin (C) 130 -62
194 Scott Olsen (P) 133.5 -60.5
294.3 Akinori Iwamura 234 -60.3
269 Jeremy Sowers (P) 209 -60
290.1 Troy Tulowitzki (SS) 230.5 -59.6
301 Corey Hart (OF) 241.5 -59.5
228 Jeremy Hermida (OF) 169 -59
284.6 Salomon Torres (P) 226.5 -58.1
285.4 Jonny Gomes (OF) 227.5 -57.9
162.3 Brandon Phillips (2B) 106 -56.3
268 Ian Snell (P) 214 -54
280.4 Taylor Tankersley (P) 227 -53.4
111.5 Delmon Young (OF) 60.5 -51
301 Andre Ethier (OF) 251.5 -49.5
301 Billy Butler (OF) 251.5 -49.5
241 Chad Billingsley (P) 192.5 -48.5
178.3 Akinori Otsuka 130 -48.3
246.8 Conor Jackson (1B) 200 -46.8
301 Matt Murton (OF) 255 -46
152.9 Nick Markakis (OF) 107.5 -45.4
175.3 Joel Zumaya (P) 130 -45.3
199 John Patterson (P) 155.5 -43.5
124.9 Alexis Rios (OF) 83 -41.9
94.7 Rickie Weeks (2B) 53 -41.7
168.3 Coco Crisp (OF) 127.5 -40.8
117.7 Nick Swisher (1B,OF) 77 -40.7
301 Zach Duke (P) 260.5 -40.5
78.6 Adam Dunn (OF) 39 -39.6
200 Kelvim Escobar (P) 161 -39
301 Jason Hirsh (P) 264 -37
133.5 Howie Kendrick (1B,2B) 97 -36.5
87.3 Prince Fielder (1B) 51.5 -35.8
301 Jeff Francis (P) 265.5 -35.5
250.1 Ryan Shealy (1B) 215 -35.1
286.8 Mark DeRosa 252 -34.8
148.7 Stephen Drew (SS) 116 -32.7
197 Josh Willingham (OF) 164.5 -32.5
301 Luke Scott (OF) 270 -31
72.3 Ryan Zimmerman (3B) 42 -30.3
110 Dan Haren (P) 80 -30
106.9 Chris Young (P) 77.5 -29.4
94.9 C.C. Sabathia (P) 66 -28.9
167.3 Michael Cuddyer (OF) 139 -28.3
77.8 Felix Hernandez (P) 49.5 -28.3
96.3 Jered Weaver (P) 70.5 -25.8
127.2 Erik Bedard (P) 101.5 -25.7
173.3 Francisco Liriano 148 -25.3
43.1 Garrett Atkins (3B) 18 -25.1
125.3 Josh Barfield (2B) 100.5 -24.8
301 Joe Blanton (P) 276.5 -24.5
103.2 Cole Hamels (P) 79 -24.2
282.3 Justin Duchscherer 259 -23.3
288.1 Casey Blake 265 -23.1
93.5 Scott Kazmir (P) 70.5 -23
226.1 Lyle Overbay (1B) 203.5 -22.6
154.1 Takashi Saito (P) 132 -22.1
201.6 Curtis Granderson (OF) 180 -21.6
195 David Bush (P) 173.5 -21.5
202 Freddy Garcia (P) 181 -21
49.2 Francisco Rodriguez (P) 29 -20.2
124.9 Barry Zito (P) 105.5 -19.4
108.8 Chris Ray (P) 89.5 -19.3
36.7 Hanley Ramirez (SS) 17.5 -19.2
42.7 Aramis Ramirez (3B) 24 -18.7
294 Joel Pineiro (P) 275.5 -18.5
104.3 Chad Cordero (P) 86 -18.3
101.6 Rocco Baldelli (OF) 84.5 -17.1
196.8 Jorge Cantu (2B) 180 -16.8
169 Brad Hawpe (OF) 153 -16
176.4 Josh Johnson (P) 160.5 -15.9
23.9 Grady Sizemore (OF) 8 -15.9
29.7 Matt Holliday (OF) 14 -15.7
221 Jon Garland (P) 206 -15
235.3 Orlando Hudson 221 -14.3
101.1 Justin Verlander (P) 87 -14.1
137.7 Rich Harden (P) 124.5 -13.2
83.5 J.J. Putz (P) 70.5 -13
102.2 Dontrelle Willis (P) 89.5 -12.7
133.3 Ervin Santana (P) 121 -12.3
59 Brian McCann (C) 47 -12

[PacmanJr]

good lookin out

very useful

thanks

[Steve-o]

There is some weird ones in there, most notably Aaron Rowand. I bet this is becuase the keeper drafts are with managers who are a little more experienced.

[Niffoc4]

This is useful, I'll have to be careful about this in my drafting... since I'm not doing many redrafts this year. A couple ones of note... Akinori Otsuka being picked higher in keeper leagues... why? He's in his mid-30's, and the AL should have him better figured out this year.

With Liriano, I think his location in competitive redraft leagues will be even worse than this shows, because Yahoo has him O-ranked at like 150... sucks for whoever doesn't notice that one.

[GotowarMissAgnes]

I think there are two possible reasons for any odd ones you see. First, the keeper ADPs are really just based on two keeper drafts (I'm looking for more, but that's all I've found). So, the number can be really influenced by an odd pick. Otsuka was picked in the NINTH round of a keeper draft over at Mock Draft Central.

Second, most of the redraft ADPs are Yahoo. There are some real odd ones there, and I should probably re-do it usuing only the rotoauthority ones, since they reflect expert opinions. I did got back and correct a few of the ones that looked crazier to me, replacing Yahoo with expert numbers.

Actually, there's one more possibility. I may have messed up while cutting and pasting. I checked it but it was a little tricky.

[SmartassBoiler]

It's nice to have youth on your team, but it seems like some managers go overboard with the youth movement, especially in leagues where you only keep a few people. You can nab solid, steady veterans later in keeper league drafts when this happens, so this is good info for balancing your roster between young, breakout candidates and solid, steady veterans.

[Niffoc4]

It's nice to have youth on your team, but it seems like some managers go overboard with the youth movement, especially in leagues where you only keep a few people. You can nab solid, steady veterans later in keeper league drafts when this happens, so this is good info for balancing your roster between young, breakout candidates and solid, steady veterans.

Yeah... i've felt that way too...

[JakeTrain72]

These kinds of lists are valuable but you need to understand exactly what kind of keeper draft from which these ADPs are derived.

In one league we can only keep three players and they can't be all hitters/pitchers. So obtaining the best keepers gives you an edge. I couldn't pry Pujols away last season when he was injured. So now my goal is to get 2 young 5 cat guys. So with Crawford already in the fold I am debating on taking Gordon very, very early. While he may not be worth his draft pos. to me this season. having him and CC in a league where you can only keep at most 2 hitters would be deadly. Therefore I might reach for Gordon with my 3rd or 4th pick which would more equal to 5-7th round choice. This would skew Gordons ADP in my keeper league.

And this also leads me to another comment about keeper draft ADPs. There is a difference between the initial draft of a new keeper league and the ADPs of a draft like mine in which everyone already has 3 players that can skew things. Example from my league last season was that the winning team had obtained Soriano/Howard/Ortiz (he kept Sori and Ortiz) but could only keep two hitters. So Howard should go with the first pick, but it will be the 4th round in terms of ADP.

You need to differentiate between new keeper league initial drafts and pre-existing keeper leagues that keep a small number of players and those keeping many players.

This list does identify those players that are most likely to get a boost in value in keeper drafts which makes it a nice starting place. More drafts are needed, however, to get a bettre gauge on how much more value should be placed on each particular player.

[GotowarMissAgnes]

These kinds of lists are valuable but you need to understand exactly what kind of keeper draft from which these ADPs are derived.

If it wasn't clear from my post, these are initial keeper drafts staged by sportsfanatics.com and mockdraftcentral.com. So, they should be a good guide in general for which guys will get a boost, because there are none of these "previous keepers" issues that you mention.

You are right, however, that it would be nice to have it based on more drafts. That would remove the effect of a few bad picks or a loony manager who selects otsuka with his 9th pick in a keeper draft!