roto wrote:Chris Young (Diamondbacks) Projection
Chris Young, the Diamondbacks' 23 year-old center fielder, is a fantasy stud in the making. He's got only 70 big league at-bats under his belt, so you still have a chance to get in on the ground floor.
Young is often compared to Eric Davis and his 30/30 potential is well known. Here I will attempt to pin down some numbers for his 2007 rookie season.
As far as at-bats, I would expect around 500. Eric Byrnes might play a little CF here or there, but most of the playing time should go to Young.
Most projections have his batting average in the .250s, presumably because of his high strikeout total in 2005. But Young upped his contact rate from 72% to 82% while jumping to Triple A, so there's reason to believe he can hit .270 or .280. I am going with a conservative estimate of .262 for his rookie year, though.
Power-wise, he seems a lock for 20 home runs. He slugged over .530 at both Double A and Triple A in his age 21-22 seasons and his new home ballpark inflates right-handed homers by 16%. I am going with 24 home runs but it wouldn't be shocking to see him flirt with 30 right out of the gate.
Ribbies should be low, maybe the 75 range. He'll probably bat 6th or so, and that'll hold it down. His batting order position will similarly limit his runs to less than 80, I imagine.
Young should flirt with 20 steals. He's been successful at around 80% in recent minor league seasons, and I would expect at least 25 attempts if he gets into 130 games.
So the overall projected line is .262-24-74-76-18. That's worth about $8 in a mixed league, and a $10 performance is certainly reasonable. You should be able to get him for less than that and have good balanced value on your hands. Keeper league players should especially take note - .275-35-100-90-30 could be pretty sweet in a few years. Young will be a top preseason ROY pick for 2007.