Ender wrote:Yes because Nick Johnson who gets hurt every year, Freddy Sanchez who had never played a full season, Estrada who was hurt the yaer before and terrible and Lowell who was coming off a horrible year are as easy to predict as early rounds.
Now your just being obtuse for arguments sake. Of course the later round players are harder to predict accurately than the earlier round. Also you can't just look at where players ranked in hind sight, you have to look at where they ranked before last year and what they ended up doing. I gaurentee you the average person is less sure of their predictions for the 15-25th best players at a position than they are for the top 10.
Using thundermatt's rankings as an example...
http://thundermatt.blogspot.com/2007/02 ... lah-1.html
15th player on each list.
C-Gerald Laird - I can't predict him with any certainty at all.
1B- Todd Helton - This is a bit easier because 1B is so deep
2B - Ray Durham - Not an easy case, does 20+ HR guy show up or injured half the year guy
3B - Edwin Encarnacion - A 2nd year player who was hurt last year and has lost playtime time because of his fielding.. not an easy read.
SS - Stephen Drew - Rookie with no clue as to how much playtime he'll get.
OF - Ryan Freel - ok he's an easy read, but Chris Young is next and he certainly is not.
RP - Brad Lidge - could get between 5 and 45 saves, completely up in the air.
Later round picks are usually young high upside guys with playtime issues, injury concerned vets and guys coming off of bad years. These are the hardest types of players to project accurately.
The question isn't whether people are less sure of their predictions.
The question is whether those players ranked 15-20 or so are less accurately predicted.
Neither your opinion or my opinion about one player matters one bit.
I'm looking at TSN's rankings for last year and I see Varitek as the third ranked catcher and Javy Lopez as the 4th. How'd those projections work out? I see Derrek Lee and Todd Helton in the top 5. How’d that work out? At 2B...Cantu, Kent and Giles, where are you??? At 3B Chavez, Blalock and Ensberg in the top 10 in March, were AWOL in October. Should I go through the rest of them? There’s a lot of misses in the top 10, too.
Projections are made each year.
Players ranks are available each year.
As I've said, I've seen NO evidence that suggests those players around 15-20 are projected less accurately.
I'm always willing to base my opinion on evidence.
Provide the evidence---not random names--showing that guys ranked 15-20 are less accurately projected and I'll change my opinion.