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Do or Dye?

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Postby Pogotheostrich » Tue Feb 13, 2007 9:55 am

I don't think Lee has proven 2005 was anything more than a fluke. He still might show he can maintain that level of production but he hasn't done it yet IMO.
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Postby 05worldserieschamps » Tue Feb 13, 2007 11:17 am

But also, Lee wasn't quite the hitter that Dye was before his breakout season. Before Lee's season, he had never hit over .285 before(.335) never hit over 32 HR(46 HR) never over 100 RBI(107 RBI) never a .380 OBP (.418) never over .510 in SLG (.662). He just set ridiculous career high's in almost every category. Every single one. Dye had plenty of solid season's before that.
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Postby Yoda » Tue Feb 13, 2007 11:30 am

I also think Dye will be overrated. He should still be solid somewhere between 05/06.
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Postby Simulacrum » Tue Feb 13, 2007 1:48 pm

05worldserieschamps wrote:I don't think that Dye will be able to put up "MVP" numbers again, but I certainly think he will be better than most believe. He set his Career high in only 3 offensive categories. HR-44(previous 2 best were 33-31) RBI-120 (previous best were 119-118) and SLG-.622 (.561-.526) I think that after he really felt at home with the White Sox and won the WS and the WS MVP, he really built up confidence and comfort on the South Side. I also think with that solid lineup he has around him, his RBI and R totals should be the same. Also, he was just deadly clutch last year. And after seeing so many Sox games and our bullpen blowing the game only to be saved by Dye, I think he was the clutchest player in baseball last season. Ortiz is amazing in big situations, but Dye was just a lock for a big hit in late innings.

I look for him to be more around:

.310 AVG/34 HR/118 RBI/101 R/6 SB

A small decline in every category, but I still feel confident he can lead our team and be the most dominant offensive threat.

But I think one player that can be overlooked is Konerko. I think he will be better than Dye.

.318/42 HR/123 RBI/ 98 R/3 SB

If you look, since 2004, he has gotten better. (HR #'s dropped last year, but 40 and 41 before that). His average has bumped alot and he is just a team leader.

I could see Konerko putting up something close to those numbers, except for the average. He hit .313 last season, well above his career average of .283. As an owner, I'd be thrilled if he even managed to sniff .300 again this season.

Although I admit I'm still jaded from the start of 2005 when he hit in the low .200's for the first third of the season. :-P
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Postby chadlincoln » Tue Feb 13, 2007 2:56 pm

Pogotheostrich wrote:Next to no chance he repeats 2006

38 points over his career BA
46 points over his career OBP
136 points over his career SLG
I agree. He's still a good option in the OF, but no way does he repeat/build on those numbers from last year.
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Postby JakeTrain72 » Wed Feb 14, 2007 2:51 pm

Based on what I am seeing in some mocks, there seems to be a drop off right at Dye. Abreu, A. Jones who people feel have upside this year and then there is Dye and Damon who people think will drop a bit in production. The question is whether Dye is the best of the next tier of OFs or the last OF in the tier with Wells.

I personally like A. Jones in a contract year and feel after he and Wells are taken there is a drop off with the next 5 or so OFs. I wouldn't want to invest anything more than a mid-late 5th round pick in any of those guys when you can probably get a Rios or Hunter in the 6-8th. Dye vs. Rios or Damon vs. Hunter seems pretty neglible a couple rounds later to me.

If Dye is there in the 6th, sure. But for a 4th round pick I think he is going a bit too high considering your alternatives may be a better value.
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Postby George_Foreman » Wed Feb 14, 2007 5:27 pm

Reasonable predictions for Dye are his career numbers. Upside is a bit better than that. It's really pretty simple for long-time players.
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Postby Element » Wed Feb 14, 2007 8:58 pm

We all knew what type of hitter Dye was prior to his injury woes. We was developing into one of the leagues best hitters. There was plenty of evidence that 2006 was going to be a big year for him. He hit 30 homers and stole double digit bases in '05, showing that his legs (hitter's base) was under him. Now, am I saying that I expected THAT big of a season? No way, but I expected something around 0.295/35/115/10. I think that's about where he'll be again this season.
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Postby The Loveable Losers » Wed Feb 14, 2007 10:15 pm

Doughhead wrote:So what is a reasonable projection? .280/90/30/100/5?

You're pretty darned close to Pecota there. Looks fairly reasonable though if Thome and Konerko play up to their capability and don't get hurt and Crede maintains last year's level those context numbers might be a touch low. Pecota doesn't think so but I could see him at about 95/105 or so if everyone stays healthy and produces.
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Postby OneLoveBoomer » Thu Feb 15, 2007 2:09 am

05worldserieschamps wrote:I look for him to be more around:

.310 AVG/34 HR/118 RBI/101 R/6 SB

A small decline in every category, but I still feel confident he can lead our team and be the most dominant offensive threat.

Yep, don't expect too big of a regression from him. A regression, sure, but he'll be above .300 and he'll definetly crush 30+ hrs.
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