PlayingWithFire wrote: BritSox wrote:
PlayingWithFire wrote:still haven't answered my Saarloos example...
Because it's worthless. When has Saarloos ever
had good K/BB and HR/9 in the majors? Prospects bust sometimes, big wow.
Let me guess, Greg Maddux' entire career was a fluke.
No, Maddux does everything other than k extremely well and his k-rate was acceptable.
My point is that when scouting prospects, stuff absolutely matter. And the definite statement that k/bb and hr/9 is all you need is just plain not accurate, sure those 2 stats helps. But so does a lot of other factors.
Firstly, let me begin by saying we're talking MLB pitchers, not prospects here.
Obviously, I'm not arguing that MLB teams should never use traditional scouting methods in evaluating prospects
Maddux during his peak had a decent K-rate, almost never walked anyone, and gave up very few HR. THat's why he was successful. It's as simple as that. Every elite pitcher in the last twenty years has been good at at least two of those things- whether it be getting lots of K's and rarely walking anyone (Schilling type) limiting the walks and HR (Maddux) or getting the K's and being hard to take deep (Nolan Ryan style).
With Saarloos, I'd point out that his rep in the minors was based on one good year, in AA, in a pitcher's park whilst (as a college player) comparatively old for the level. His numbers that year were impressive, but they (and the 30 ins of excellent relief the year before) nevertheless constituted a very small sample size, barely more than half an MLB season, and there were the cautionary factors mentioned above.
Besides, I don't think anyone's surprised that a pitcher put up worse numbers in the majors than the minors. Plenty of guys who look great in AA make mediocre or worse MLBers. Oliver Perez had great stuff and minor league numbers, and look what happened to him. All your Saarloos example has proven is that pitching prospects sometimes flame out (and, frankly, Saarloos is still an acceptable back of rotation starter in MLB).
Still, if you want to tell me the number of MPH on a guy's fastball is a better statistic to use when putting together my rankings than those two things, be my guest.