First, I'd like to comment that this is a great debate. This is going to be a real drat day decision for a lot of people: Now for my two cents.
My knee jerk decision when comparing the numbers would be A-Ram. Often it is said that your first instinct is the best; but not in this case.
1. Atkins isn't inflated by Coors: His HR, R, BA, and OBP totals were consistent enough home and away that I wouldn't read into the RBI totals too far. Which means to me that he truly is a solid guy, and a slip is not likely.
2. A-Ram is the sexy choice because of those HR totals, but his career OBP is .332. I play in an OBP league (way better than avg leagues, I highly recommend it). Atkins is a plus .400 OBP guy, which means more Run ops. Atkins is helping his team more, and that means helping his stats a lot of times. It's a good thing to bank on.
3. Atkins is younger. Splitting hairs, I know, but the truth is, when you have a tie, go with the younger guy. (Women around the world just memorized that line.)
4. A-Ram had cold starts in 03, 05 and 06. And had a hot start in 04, followed by a cold summer. Hey, the end product looks good, but you're drafting a guy you expect to hit .290 and 30 dingers, If he saves all those for 3 months out of the 6 months he plays, you're team is falling short of expectations half the time. In a H to H league, thats the playoffs. sure, you might wrek havoc the other three months, but what fun is trying to sneak into the last spot of the playoffs. I would rather make the playoffs and lose, than miss with a hot team. (I hope most would admit to that)
5. Atkins has two other young guys coming into their primes hanging around. Holliday and Hawpe. Honestly, if barmes comes around that team is going to storm their division. the D-backs are still a year behind, the giants are going to be rebuilding soon, and the dodgers are their only legit contender; and frankly, I cant get excited about that team at all. Whereas the Cubs are cursed until proven otherwise. (oh yeah, the Padres...they have pitchers...and...uh....I guess that's it)
I'd take Atkins, by the slimest of margins.