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jay wrote:So you buy the fact that he's declining? What do you think about 2004 Hootie?
HOOTIE wrote:jay wrote:I looked over the numbers and I don't understand what happened. Maybe someone smarter than me can explain it:
2002: 199 IP 194H 118/45/14 k/BB/HR ... 2.62 ERA!
2003: 218 IP 225H 124/33/24 k/BB/HR ... 3.94 ERA!
How can a few more hits, similar K rates, LESS walks, and 10 more bombs account for a spike of almost a point and a half?
I thought either bad luck or the "new" srtikezone with Questec was affecting him, but his control is just as good and his luck was the same as last year.
How do you know his luck was just as good? Was it? I dont have his 03 numbers yet, but his 02 season was green with luck. A side note, a 10 hr increase, nearly double of previous year, is a factor in era increase.
(BPI) Base Performance Indicators were his lowest since 1990. That is concerning because of age. BPI for pitchers are
oppositon oba (OOB)
hit rate on balls in play (H%)
strand rate (S%)
expected era (xERA)
Maddux 02 bpis and compared to his last 5 seasons
control (increased to 2.0, 5 year low)
dominance (decreased to 5.3, 5 year low)
command ( decreased to 2.6, 5 year low
OOB (257, 2nd worst in 5 years)
H% (29%) 30% is average, a variance of 3% can effect era
S% (80%) at 70% a pitcher has trouble with era, 75% is around the norm, 80% guys will have artificially low eras.
As you can see, his numbers (BPI), were his worst since 90. His strand rate helped make his era look better then it should have been.
wrveres wrote:His ERA will be alot closer to 3.00, than it will be to 4.00
Madison wrote:wrveres wrote:His ERA will be alot closer to 3.00, than it will be to 4.00
Hmmm......I was thinking 3.50 at best. More like 3.60-3.75 range. Hmmmm...... I already gave him the 15 wins.
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