The Cow wrote:Agnes where do I start?
How about with the truth?
The Cow wrote: Lets see well it looks as though you padded your stats a bit here when you count Bagwell, Nevin, A. Boone, Koskie, B. Williams and Finley as wins when you tab them as players to avoid. Who drafted these guys anyway? I mean everyone knew not to draft these guys. You may as well have said well I think Johan, Pujols, Wright, Reyes, Utley, AROD, Vlad etc would be good picks and count those no-brainers as wins.
Yet, several people vigorously chimed in that Boone and Bagwell did not fit in that category. Maybe if you had read the thread instead of speaking with 20-20 hindsight, you'd make sense.
The Cow wrote:Padilla a sleeper you say? If by a sleeper you mean sleep on this guy and don't draft him you are correct. His stats:
4.50 ERA(ouch), 1.38 WHIP(double ouch), 15 wins (will take it very solid, but not with a 4.50 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP), 156 K's/200IP(solid won't hurt or help)
And where did he end up ranked in Yahoo, Cow?
The Cow wrote:You say Bedard and Cabrera are a push?? After reading your post you were wishy-washy on both, but it sounded like you were higher on Cabrera so here are the stats:
Bedard 15 wins 3.76 ERA 1.35 WHIP 171K's/196 IP
Cabrera 9 wins 4.74 ERA 1.58 WHIP 157K's/148 IP
Clearly Bedard is better. In no way are they a push.
Maybe if you understood what I was saying, you'd get somewhere. People asked me frequently about these two all spring, since I'm an O's fan. My advice to them was consistently that I thought expectations on both of them were way too high. Bedard, I argued was the safer bet for overall performance, but had an injury-prone past. Cabrera was riskier, both in the sense that he might have a huge breakout, but also in the sense that he had potential to be much much worse than Bedard. I pegged Cabrera's breakout as probably only a 10 percent chance.
So, saying this was a push was saying that I was basically off on Bedard, in that for the first time in years he stayed healthy a full season and produced better than I expected. But, I was basically on for Cabrera, in that he did not break out and was pretty much like last year or even a little worse.
Your lack of reading comprehension is REALLY bad if you think I was saying that Cabrera was better than Bedard.
The Cow wrote:Finally a look at Crisp and Marte, the stats:
Crisp .264 BA 58 runs 8 HRs 36 RBI 22 SB (ops .702)
Marte .226 BA 20 runs 5 HR 23 RBI 0 SB (OPS .707)
You say its too early to call, yes it is. Both players sucked last year. Crisp has an excuse at least, he was injured. Marte well once again he tanked. Marte was being campained as a huge power hitter well he had an OPS of .702, Crisp who is a CF and a speed guy, nobody thinks he is a power hitter, had a .702 OPS and 22 SBs whcih are not factored into OPS. Crisp had the better year so chalk a W up for me.
Crisp did not have a better year. He had a crappy year, tailing off even more than anyone including me expected. That OPS is not adjusted for park and Crisp played in the better park for offense. Adjust for park, and Marte had the better year on a rate basis, as I said.
Remember this: "Boston will be saying Johnny who?"
"Crisp- Does it all, not as much power as you would like more of a leadoff or #2 hitter. But if the Sox need a CF well this guy can be an all-star. .310 20/20 RBIs and runs depends on the team."
Further, your analysis here ignores several things:
1. Marte is 4 years younger.
2. Marte played half the season at AAA, where he held his own as a 22 year old in AAA ball, even banging 15 homers in 391 PAs. That's on track for 23 dingers in a full season as a 22 year old in AAA ball, playing in a pitcher's park.
3. Marte's MLB numbers have a hidden power surge as well. It's hidden because his batting average was low, a number that's subject to a lot of randomness. Pro-rate his extra base hits to 600 PAs and what do you find? A 22 year old who was on track for 17 HRs and 51 2Bs in a pitcher's park.
So, now the Red Sox have an injured player entering his declining years who is going to cost some major $ to retain. And the Tribe still has a cheap player who looks poised to make a big leap next year. In fact, they are so confident about Marte, they got rid of Kouzmanoff!