Lofunzo wrote:mweir145 wrote:Lofunzo wrote:mweir145 wrote:Lofunzo wrote:Less than market value?? I don't see how it is.
Don't misinterpret what I'm saying. He's certainly likely to never be worth the money he's getting in this deal, but it had been suggested by many that he would have been a 20M player next year in FA, and that he would decline this deal for that very reason. Rosenthal in that very article points out that a 10 year/200M contract was actually within range of what you would expect Vernon to get had he been a FA next year.
I saw what he wrote but I respectfully disagree with him. Eventually, the market will come crashing down again. It might be next year or it might not. It seems like the $200M plateau is something that owners don't want to do. Putting the $$ aside, that is a prestigious level and you better be a great player before you can expect that level. I don't see how Wells is close to that level. Right after A-Rod signed, Jeter signed his deal. The timing was perfect yet he didn't make that much. I don't think that can be ignored.
If you had read what I've written throughout this article, you would know that I don't believe Vernon Wells is close to that level, and that's why I wouldn't like this signing as much as some other scenarios. That doesn't have anything to do with his market value, though. What I do know is where his market level is based on what Soriano, Lee, and Drew signed for, as well as speculation amongst media sources (including Rosenthal, who I do trust to have a good read on what GMs are thinking). You'd have to think a younger 3 time Gold-Glove winner with a good bat would be deemed to be better than those 3 by general managers, and would have signed for considerably more than that had he been on the market this year (and next year, as I don't see this market changing that soon).
I saw what you wrote about Wells' worth and I agree that he will probably never live up to this contract. I am mainly saying that $200M is hallowed ground. No matter what the market would be, I don't know whether he would have been able to squeak another 3 years and $74M out of some team.
You might be right, but if Vernon signs this contract we'll never really know what what his value would have been next year (though we could get a good indication next year based on how much Andruw Jones signs for). Keep in mind that I'm merely saying this is under market value, not that he would actually get 200M. There's still a large range in between 126 and 200. I'm convinced that if he was a FA this year, he would have received atleast 20M. Over the last few years, I've learned to never underestimate the spending of rich owners in markets like these though, particularly if they really want to win.