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NL Cy Young

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Postby BlueBandit24 » Tue Nov 14, 2006 8:50 pm

I have more of a problem with Hoffman finishing 2nd, as it seems many others do. Webb, Carp, and Oswalt all had their arguments in my eyes, and should have finished 1-3 regardless of the winner.
Kudos to GiantsFan14 for the sig.
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Postby AdvRider » Tue Nov 14, 2006 9:08 pm

The Cy Young isn't a "lifetime achievement award." It is a award that goes to the best pitcher that had the best season.


I agree it's not a lifetime achievement award, but I'd argue Hoffman had a better year than Webb. An ERA over 3 doesn't get my vote for Cy Young ... unless there are no other options.

Fact is that until Webb, there hasn't been an NL Cy Young winner with an ERA greater than 3 since 1982! And Webb's .246 BAA is the highest for an NL Cy Young winner since 1983!

None of that screams out Cy Young to me.

Webb had a good, semi-great year. Hoffman's year didn't match Gagne's 2003, but it was better than Webb's.

And you add in that Hoffman's 2006 included setting the all-time saves record, well, that gets factored in ... or it should, IMHO.

Evidently it wasn't ... I agree, the writers can be very ignorant at times ... ;-)
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Postby blankman » Tue Nov 14, 2006 9:19 pm

AdvRider wrote:
The Cy Young isn't a "lifetime achievement award." It is a award that goes to the best pitcher that had the best season.


I agree it's not a lifetime achievement award, but I'd argue Hoffman had a better year than Webb. An ERA over 3 doesn't get my vote for Cy Young ... unless there are no other options.

Fact is that until Webb, there hasn't been an NL Cy Young winner with an ERA greater than 3 since 1982! And Webb's .246 BAA is the highest for an NL Cy Young winner since 1983!

None of that screams out Cy Young to me.

Webb had a good, semi-great year. Hoffman's year didn't match Gagne's 2003, but it was better than Webb's.

And you add in that Hoffman's 2006 included setting the all-time saves record, well, that gets factored in ... or it should, IMHO.

Evidently it wasn't ... I agree, the writers can be very ignorant at times ... ;-)


Since 1900, this year marked the 3rd highest league ERA in the National League.

Think about that for a second.

Now please tell me why a closer only pitching 63 innings, which is even low for a closer deserves it over Webb, Carp or Oswalt.

Webb through 235 innings. Now do you really think Hoffman's 63 innings outweigh Webb's 235?

To win as a closer, you have to have a record book season not career achievement. Hoffman's season was good, but no where near anything outstanding, like Gagne's or Rivera's 2005.

Hell, I'd like to see a reasonable argument as to why Hoffman was even the best reliever in the NL this year. What made his year better than Saito or Wagner?
Last edited by blankman on Tue Nov 14, 2006 9:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby Art Vandelay » Tue Nov 14, 2006 9:20 pm

Not generally one to toot my own horn, but:

On April 5th, 2006 Art Vandelay wrote:I've been saying this for months, and getting laughed at for it, but I think Webb is going to win the NL Cy Young this season.
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Postby AdvRider » Tue Nov 14, 2006 10:58 pm

Hell, I'd like to see a reasonable argument as to why Hoffman was even the best reliever in the NL this year. What made his year better than Saito or Wagner?


Simple. Hoffman had a better year because neither Saito nor Wagner ever trotted out to AC/DC Hell's Bells rocking the stadium. :-D

Since 1900, this year marked the 3rd highest league ERA in the National League. Think about that for a second.


The NL ERA has been above 4.00 since 1993 – 14 straight years.

But between 1900-1992, it was below 4.00 in 77 of those 93 years. Only 16 times was NL ERA above 4.00 between 1900-1992, and 10 of those times it was less than 4.10.

There’s been a significant shift towards higher NL ERA, so if you want to put the 2006 NL ERA in a relevant context, it should be from 1993 to present. You can’t rightly compare it against 1900-1920, for instance, when NL ERA was below 3.00 11 times. Times change.

The NL ERA was 4.49 in 2006, which is higher than the average for 1993-2006 (4.28), but not by an awful lot. So I don’t buy your point. And to be exact, this year marked the fifth highest ERA in the NL since 1900, not the third. :-?

Generally, I favor starters for Cy Young rather than closers, but Webb’s numbers just aren’t Cy Young caliber … IMHO. You can make an argument between Saito – Wagner – Hoffman, but their numbers are close enough that Hoffman gets the nod based on lifetime achievement. Did Saito or Wagner even get any votes?
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Postby mikekim2121 » Tue Nov 14, 2006 11:56 pm

I figured Carp would win but Webb had a great season as well so I don't think its a big upset, if at all.

The only thing I was surprised about (along with many others) is Hoffman getting 2nd. I wonder if him breaking the record had anything to do with it.
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Postby FalcoAtL » Tue Nov 14, 2006 11:59 pm

mikekim2121 wrote:I figured Carp would win but Webb had a great season as well so I don't think its a big upset, if at all.

The only thing I was surprised about (along with many others) is Hoffman getting 2nd. I wonder if him breaking the record had anything to do with it.


It def. had an effect on the vote, no doubt.

I'm glad people were able to look past the last couple starts that Webb had. Without them I think he would have had an ERA under 3 for sure and probably a couple more wins.
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Postby blankman » Wed Nov 15, 2006 1:04 am

AdvRider wrote:
Hell, I'd like to see a reasonable argument as to why Hoffman was even the best reliever in the NL this year. What made his year better than Saito or Wagner?


Simple. Hoffman had a better year because neither Saito nor Wagner ever trotted out to AC/DC Hell's Bells rocking the stadium. :-D

Since 1900, this year marked the 3rd highest league ERA in the National League. Think about that for a second.


The NL ERA has been above 4.00 since 1993 – 14 straight years.

But between 1900-1992, it was below 4.00 in 77 of those 93 years. Only 16 times was NL ERA above 4.00 between 1900-1992, and 10 of those times it was less than 4.10.

There’s been a significant shift towards higher NL ERA, so if you want to put the 2006 NL ERA in a relevant context, it should be from 1993 to present. You can’t rightly compare it against 1900-1920, for instance, when NL ERA was below 3.00 11 times. Times change.

The NL ERA was 4.49 in 2006, which is higher than the average for 1993-2006 (4.28), but not by an awful lot. So I don’t buy your point. And to be exact, this year marked the fifth highest ERA in the NL since 1900, not the third. :-?

Generally, I favor starters for Cy Young rather than closers, but Webb’s numbers just aren’t Cy Young caliber … IMHO. You can make an argument between Saito – Wagner – Hoffman, but their numbers are close enough that Hoffman gets the nod based on lifetime achievement. Did Saito or Wagner even get any votes?


You're missing the point entirely. This year marked an exceptionally high league ERA. The fact that only one starter had an ERA below 3 is directly related to that fact.

The reason to give a closer the award is when
1. There are no strong or even decent SP options
2. The closer had a year that comes once or twice a decade

You can try to argue #1 as true (although I'd dispute that) but #2 is absolutely not true, especially when Hoffman couldn't even separate himself as unquestionably the top RP in his league. We've seen much better seasons (only 1 of which won a Cy) out of closers in recent history and Hoffman's year just doesn't stack up.

When Gagne won he put up 55 saves over a much more significant number of innings which a ridiculous WHIP and strike out numbers.

Whether Saito or Wagner got votes is irrelevant. Hoffman's numbers were not better than either of those relievers, so if you're going to give the award to Hoffman, you would have had to first establish that he was better, and he simply wasn't.
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Postby thedude » Wed Nov 15, 2006 1:43 am

blankman wrote:
AdvRider wrote:
Hell, I'd like to see a reasonable argument as to why Hoffman was even the best reliever in the NL this year. What made his year better than Saito or Wagner?


Simple. Hoffman had a better year because neither Saito nor Wagner ever trotted out to AC/DC Hell's Bells rocking the stadium. :-D

Since 1900, this year marked the 3rd highest league ERA in the National League. Think about that for a second.


The NL ERA has been above 4.00 since 1993 – 14 straight years.

But between 1900-1992, it was below 4.00 in 77 of those 93 years. Only 16 times was NL ERA above 4.00 between 1900-1992, and 10 of those times it was less than 4.10.

There’s been a significant shift towards higher NL ERA, so if you want to put the 2006 NL ERA in a relevant context, it should be from 1993 to present. You can’t rightly compare it against 1900-1920, for instance, when NL ERA was below 3.00 11 times. Times change.

The NL ERA was 4.49 in 2006, which is higher than the average for 1993-2006 (4.28), but not by an awful lot. So I don’t buy your point. And to be exact, this year marked the fifth highest ERA in the NL since 1900, not the third. :-?

Generally, I favor starters for Cy Young rather than closers, but Webb’s numbers just aren’t Cy Young caliber … IMHO. You can make an argument between Saito – Wagner – Hoffman, but their numbers are close enough that Hoffman gets the nod based on lifetime achievement. Did Saito or Wagner even get any votes?


You're missing the point entirely. This year marked an exceptionally high league ERA. The fact that only one starter had an ERA below 3 is directly related to that fact.

The reason to give a closer the award is when
1. There are no strong or even decent SP options
2. The closer had a year that comes once or twice a decade

You can try to argue #1 as true (although I'd dispute that) but #2 is absolutely not true, especially when Hoffman couldn't even separate himself as unquestionably the top RP in his league. We've seen much better seasons (only 1 of which won a Cy) out of closers in recent history and Hoffman's year just doesn't stack up.

When Gagne won he put up 55 saves over a much more significant number of innings which a ridiculous WHIP and strike out numbers.

Whether Saito or Wagner got votes is irrelevant. Hoffman's numbers were not better than either of those relievers, so if you're going to give the award to Hoffman, you would have had to first establish that he was better, and he simply wasn't.



I have no problem with a closer winning it if he was lights out. What i have a real problem with is the inconsistancy of the BWAA voting.

Paplebon did not recieve a single first place vote for ROY, but Hoffman got 12 first votes for Cy Young?!!

So move Paplebon (who throw more innings than Hoffman and had an ERA+ of 500 compared to an ERA+ of 197 for Hoffman) to the NL does he get the Cy Young? Would Verlander have been the Cy Young winner in the NL? The Sports Writers seem to think that he was better than Paplebon. Paplebon was better than Hoffman (there is no way you can argue this fact rationally). Therfore Verlander should have least come in second in the NL Cy Young Race (if not won it outright), had he been in the NL.

This just shows that the BWAA are complete idiots.
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Postby AdvRider » Wed Nov 15, 2006 1:59 am

You're missing the point entirely. This year marked an exceptionally high league ERA.


I’m not missing the point at all. Your argument might be valid if NL ERA this year was indeed “exceptionally” high. But it wasn’t. It was a mere 5% higher than the 1993-2006 average. You can’t stretch it all the way back to 1900, because things changed. Steroids happened, humidors happened, whatever. 2006 and 1945 are apples and oranges.

Here’s another way to put this in context. The average ERA of NL Cy Young winners over the past 20 years is 2.32. Webb’s 3.10 is 33% higher than that average, or, you could say, exceptionally higher.

Webb is the least deserving Cy Young winner in recent memory. Plus, he helped a rival manager take first place while I came in second ! :-b :-b
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