I expect some regression across the board to something like 300-32-115.
If you look at his splits, he had two torrid months in June and July during which he hit 18 HR and his OPS was 1.137 and 1.130 respectively. The other four months his OPS was never over 889 and he had 698 in April. If you look at pre- and post-ASB, his power dropped off the map in the second half but his BA rose. He hit only 11 HR in 292 at-bats in the second half (only 4 in August and 2 in September in 217 at-bats).
What does all this mean? I have no clue. He's too young to know whether he's just a very streaky hitter or whether his June and July were just above his head. Did pitchers learn to pitch better to him in the second half? Did they pitch around him?
I do have a feeling that June and July were above his head. If you take out just one of those months, you're looking at 28 to 30 HR and not 34. On the other hand, he's young and likely not reached his peak.
Also, he had 592 at-bats last year, which is quite a bit for a slugger who hits in the middle of the lineup. Twinkies will have to continue hitting well across the lineup next season to give him as many at-bats. I'm not saying they won't, but if the lineup loses any of its firepower next year (will Mauer hit 350 again?) then his at-bats and counting stats could decline.
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