JohnnyBenchBest Ever wrote:I just completed my second year of fantasy baseball and would like to learn how to make good projections for up comming seasons. I'm not really sure how to do this. I'm not asking for anyone's work I'd like to know how to project 07 based off minor league or major league stats. Any help would be greatly appreciated.
I have been playing for a while and last year was my first doing projections. Do a search here, there area couple of good threads on it. I think there might even be something in Madison's faq.
One way to make projections is base it on the last three years of stats with a regression to the mean. 50/33/17, then regress it to the league mean. It's my understanding that this is is called the Marcel system (so easy a monkey could do it). I think tangotiger publishes this later on in the offseason as well. You can find stats here
How I did it this year was the standard 50/33/17, with somewhat of a regression to mean. I thought the full regression was too much of a dip and undervalued the numbers too much. I then adjusted the numbers based on my own standard for age, park factors, change of leagues, and lineups. For example, an decrease of 2% for changing leagues, etc.
I have no idea how to correlate minor league stats into the projections though. I also was not very accurate with pitchers, so would love to hear some more advice on those subjects.
Another word of advice is to focus on playing time. I think this year I am going make prokections based on occurance per AB. This way I can re-project as situations change throughout the year. Anyone else do this?
Ohh. Here are some of my links on the subject. Most of these are from GotoWarMissAgnes (thanks GTWMA!). PM me if you want some more info, or other people could post it here.
http://bradbury.sewanee.edu/wordpress/i ... erformance
http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/btf ... ngMLEs.htm