TheYanks04 wrote:There are formulas like the 3 year rule etc. It still is just educated guesswork imo. You can adjust the projections, use 3 year avgs, adjust for ball parks, leagues, etc. It is all statistical nonsense based on mathematical models that someone believes to be accurate.
It's not simply belief. Several threads here have studied which models predict better. You can measure how accurate a system is.
The problem is that it is like economic forecast models or weather forecast models, you can throw all the Cray supercomputers you want at it and they still can't accurately predict what the economy is like a year from now or what the weather is like next month.
Are they "better" than gut feeling...probably but unlike some here, I do not have that sort of time to spend on something which even in the absolute best case is not proven to be any better than the method you and I use. I have yet to see a pre-season projection list that when the season was over was anything close to what you would consider accurate quantitatively. So again, I am with you.
Why spend inordinate amounts of time and effort to come up with numbers that in the end are no more likely to help you win your league than any of the other dozens of projection lists? Find one that you like pretty much and looks reasonable, tweak it and let someone else do 75% of the work for you.
If someone gets a thrill from running stats through computer formulas, great. I have never seen any evidence that correlates so and so expert's projections to a better winning percentage in fantasy leagues or better performances in fantasy leagues. I am sure if someone had it, they would be publishing it all over the place because there is some serious money to be made there if that were true.
The bottom line is that the projections end up being so far off at end of season as to be almost worthless quantitatively when all is said in done.
First of all, I agree with you that the data on accuracy clearly show that this is not really all that much difference right now between a simple projection, like the 3 year rule, and more sophisticated measures....certainly not enough difference to be a bid deal for your typical fantasy player.
But, I do think your perspective misses the point on the utility of projections. Every single projection system will have tons of errors on their individual player projections.
But, you don't draft one player. You typically draft 22-30 players. And the real utility of projections is that you will get a VERY accurate assessment of your team's projected totals if you rely on a decent projection. Because, while the systems are inaccurate for any individual player, the individual player errors tend to balance out. So, if you count up the projections for your whole team, you will tend to get, within a small range of error, a good sense of your team's likely totals.