stumpak wrote:You guys are using history as a prelude to the future, which is not the right thing to do with an inconistent 40 year old SP. Sure Maddux had a 1.22 WHIP this season, but it is not 100% that he repeats this next year. In fact, I would conseriavtively gage a 30% chance that he is slightly worse, a 10% chance that he completely falls apart and very little chance that he is better.
So the fact that he was top 50 this year is not especially germane. And if you beleive that he stands a good chance to be better than Johnson again next season, I have some beachfront property in Oklahoma to sell you. Without even looking at the numbers, I am pretty certain that his 2005 superiority to Johnson, if this is true in roto 5x5, is attributable to the fact that Johnson pitched out of the pen for 25% of the season and also missed a few starts due to injury.
I don't know, he's about as consistent as you get: WHIP of 1.18, 1.22 and 1.22 the past three years, ERA of 4.02-4.24, K's 151 down to 117 last year, and 15,13,16 wins over last three. If you think he's going to forget how to pitch a la Cone, don't take him. Sure, history gets you only so far, but as a late round pick I don't see the risk. If he stinks, you pick up someone else.