Yoda wrote:JustAnotherYanksFan wrote:Yoda wrote:JustAnotherYanksFan wrote:Yoda wrote:JustAnotherYanksFan wrote:
Lance Berkman - I'd say this was probably a career year for him. Also, that lineup just isn't very good, and if he hit 35 HR instead of 45 then it woudn't be hard to see him with something like 85 R and 110 RBI. Those are still good numbers, don't get me wrong, but if Berkman is going in the second round (as I expect he will) then that's too high for me.
It is really funny how Berkman STILL gets no respect. All he does is put up great numbers across the board year in and year out. Yet he is on top of people's overrated lists. I just do not get it.
Really? I don't think I've ever seen anyone else call him overrated, and I don't think of him that way in general. It's more that I think he had a career year this year and so he'll be going a round or two too early. If I could get him in the late third or later, I'd still take him for sure, it's just that I'm guessing he'll go higher than that because people will overpay for a career year. (And for the record I would take Berkman well before Dunn.)
Trust me. I've seen many Berkman overrated posts over the years and reply to every single one of them.
Well for what it's worth I thought Berkman was a great guy to target last year, so I don't have anything against the guy in general, just this year I guess.
So a 31 yo hitter who qualifies at OF, 1B and averages 105 R, 34 HR, 115 RBI, 7 SB, .304 BA, .983 OPS per year since 2000 and is always available in the second round and beyond is overrated in your estimation?
Well, yeah. I don't think he's vastly overrated but I think it's important to keep in mind that those career averages mostly came at a time when the Astros' lineup was above average. Now it's one of the worst in the league. That didn't matter last year because Berkman was so ridiculous, but if he returns to his career averages of .304, 34 HR and a .983 OPS then I don't think he'll be worth taking in the second round because the lineup will take a toll on the R/RBI.
I'm not saying that taking Berkman in the 2nd round is a terrible pick and will destroy any chances you have of winning your league. It's just that I think he's slightly overrated and I wouldn't take him until more like the late third.
Now that I'm thinking about that, maybe I should modify what I said. I think Berkman will put up good numbers but will perform below what people might be expecting of him. However, until I start doing rankings I can't really say for sure how early I'd take him, especially since every year I seem to be unable to find enough players that I consider worthy of being taken in the second round. So I'll just say that I think Berkman will put up something around .300-35-85-100. The more I think about it, the more I'd say it's unfair to call him overrated just because he's consistent and there's no way he busts completely. But I just think he might underperform expectations because the effects of the lineup on the R/RBI will really start to become apparent if he returns to his career norms in team-independent stats.