Now that the regular season has officially ended, I figured I'd resurrect this thread. Here are some guys I think will be over-valued (I might be repeating ones mentioned earlier, but there were also a couple weeks of regular season between then and now so opinions might have changed).
Lance Berkman - I'd say this was probably a career year for him. Also, that lineup just isn't very good, and if he hit 35 HR instead of 45 then it woudn't be hard to see him with something like 85 R and 110 RBI. Those are still good numbers, don't get me wrong, but if Berkman is going in the second round (as I expect he will) then that's too high for me.
Bronson Arroyo - I see the league catching up to him a little.
Mike Mussina - If you look at his career trends in recent years, it's hard to imagine he can repeat this year, improved changeup or no.
Derek Jeter - He's not going to bust, but it's also unlikely that he'll quite live up to his draft position considering how great a year he had this year.
Joe Mauer - It's hard to imagine that any player, let alone a catcher, can consistently hit .345+, which is where a lot of his value came from. Until I'm convinced that he's developing some power, I'm not spending a round 3/4 pick on him.
Carlos Beltran - Only because it's easy to just say "Oh, Beltran bounced back, he's good again" without seeing that he only had 18 steals. If he hits 40+ HR again, then fine, but I don't trust Beltran to be a 40-HR hitter, which means I want more than 18 SB before I'm willing to draft him in the first round (which is where I assume he'll generally go).
Justin Morneau - Depends where he ends up going in drafts, but if he's typically going in the 3rd round (which is what I'm guessing), then I'd rather have a more proven player (not to mention that I'm skeptical that he'll repeat the .321 BA and 130 RBI).
Jason Bay - I think he'll still go relatively early because of what he did two years ago, but I just don't see him stealing enough to make him that valuable; he's really just a 100-35-100 OF. I'd still take him around the 4th round but I doubt he slips that late.