TheYanks04 wrote:JustAnotherYanksFan wrote:cordscords wrote:TheYanks04 wrote:cordscords wrote:TheYanks04 wrote:I like to here why a lot of people think Dye is the next Beltran implosion waiting to happen. Don't get it. He has had 2 good years in a row. Even if his numbers recedes a little, he is still worth quite a bit.
Career year at age 32, injury history (I think he's done with that though) send out some worry signals for a guy who looks to be a 2nd round pick.
I do not think he is second round material. I doubt any experienced owner with some insight is picking him that high in 07. Still, I definitely see him going in the top 5 rounds. From the talk here though, you would think the guy is going to implode. There are people in the Draft and Keeper forum recommending keeping Sabathia over Dye as an example. Just seems to be a lot of negativity wrt to Dye an I just do not quite understand it.
I expect some falloff from this years numbers, but he should still be a solid perfomer barring injury. Even if he hit 280 35/100, he would still be a pretty valuable OF, esp in 5 OF deep leages. And I do not see his numers falling much below that barring an injury of course. And his injury was that flukeish broken leg he suffered in the post-season a few years ago. It is not like he is Cliff Floyd or even Chipper Jones at this point with one nagging thing after another.
Dye just seems to be getting very little respect while a guy like Liriano for example, who is injured and unproven is overhyped imo. Guys like Hanley Ramirez who as a rookie had a great year, are considered top round picks. All with a limited track record to say the least. We saw something like this with AJ last season, but even there AJ is still regarded as a sure fire round 5 or better pick even though everyone was expecting some drop off from 2005.
If you expect Dye to go round 2 I see the point to a degree. I just can't imagine anyone is going to buy into that.
There is always that 1 guy who latches on to last years stats, that 1 guy who's known for drafting all the boom or bust canidates, and that 1 guy who's an idiot who relies on the big board that has him ranked at #19. Chances are he's gone in the 2nd/3rd.
I'd rather take a safe pick that early. If he does end up being available in the 5th, I'd take a hard look at him.
Yeah, somehow those kinds of players that 11 out of 12 managers know had a fluke year never end up being good picks. In my main league this year (14 team keeper) Jeff Kent was still on the board in the 7th and even though I didn't value him particularly highly I figured I HAD to take him there. In the 9th round I saw Pettitte sitting there and even though I didn't value him very highly I thought I had to take him there. Granted those are only two examples, so I don't know if it's fair to form a rule just from those two, but in my experience it just never really pays off to draft those guys (Beltre after '04, Loaiza after '03, Pettitte after '05, etc.) where 11 out of 12 people in the league just know that they're going to bust, even if you feel like you're getting a bargain because you're getting them at a lower draft spot than you should based on last year's stats.
Basically, I wouldn't want to be the guy in my league spending the third or fourth round pick on Dye next year.
I dunno. I think that your Kent analogy is just off the mark there. Kent when he played put up OK numbers. In the 7th I can think of worse gambles. He got hurt and missed some tiime. Them's the breaks.
Pettitte I probably agree with you on. However, one could argue that in the 9th round, Pettitte was a fairly good buy...it just did not work out. It is not like Carlos Zambrano was likely to be around in the 9th. Smoltz might have been and that is the guy that you should have taken if he was around then. I know I grabbed Smoltz in the 7-9th in a lot of leagues.
I took Smoltz in the 6th. Anyway, I was surprised to see Kent and Pettitte around that late, and I'm not saying taking them in those spots ruined my season or anything. Also you're right, the Kent analogy wasn't really accurate because it wasn't like he had a fluke year, it was more that everyone in the league seemed to all think that he was going to start to decline.
But with guys like Beltre, Loaiza, Pettitte, even if you feel like you're getting them a round or two later than you should based on their numbers from the previous year, in my experience it rarely ends up being worth it.