Amazinz wrote:My final point deals with the worth of sabermetrics. I am a big fan of sabermetrics and baseball stats in general. I love playing with numbers and never get tired of reading new theories on how to accurately measure the worth of fielders. But I also have to admit that most conclusions achieved through sabermetrics are “fuzzy”. I don’t think there have been enough concrete proofs. Sabermetrics has revolutionized the way we look at baseball statistics but in my opinion it has not yet revolutionized the way we understand the game.
Great post. I agree.
Wade Boggs is a perfect example of a player from the past who had some years taken away from him because management didn't think he was any good. The criteria used to judge a player back then was not adequate to realize his value. Boston kept holding him back. He was so obviously great that he finally pushed through, but if he came up now, he would be in the major two or three years sooner than back then, because of sabermetrics.
Youkilis is another example. He might not have even made the majors. Not much power. No speed. He can walk. Yippee. Send him home. Now he's contributing to a playoff contender.
We have no idea how many players like this never got a chance to play in the majors, their AAA roster spots being taken by guys who looked like they could be five toolers.
Another example is high school pitchers. For 20 years, they always got picked first and paid the big bucks. Not no more. Back then, it was just something you did. You drafted potential. Well, someone decided to analyze the value of that and realized 9 times out of 10, it was a wasted pick.
Not anymore. The change is dramatic. MLB front offices' understanding of what it takes to win a game has dramatically improved since the late 70s. And now that most of these guys are working for teams, you can bet that there are formulas in use throughout baseball that none of us even know about.
The main revolution is that a scout can no longer come into a GM and say "this guy's got it. We need to draft him." and expect him to be picked. You now need solid evidence to back up your hunches if you're evaluating talent. That's a sea change if you ask me.