The timeline on this went
1) Palestinians protesting state of affairs as usual.
2) Israelis react in usual manner
3) Palestinians achieve improbable result of capturing a solder
4) Israel reacts in heavy handed manner, decapitating Palestinian government, blowing up civic institutions, power, etc.
5) Hezbollah notes the reaction and ALSO kidnaps a soldier, pretty much playing the Israelis, even though you would think that they would know that the IDF will likely pound them to smithereens.
I don't think that the Cuba analogy works b/c Cuba is a highly centralized, one-party state whereas Hezbollah and Hamas are both organizations of organizations, employing a cellular organizational structure for security purposes.
I have not seen any allegations, either from Israel or the US or anyone else that they have any evidence (a PowerPoint presentation?) that Hezbollah and/ or Hamas planned this from the top down, issued orders to their troops to capture soldiers so that they can do a prisoner exchange. They simply got 'lucky' and are using the prisoners to push the Israelis to action. And, the other thing about Cuba is that even though their forces are largely equipped w/ old Soviet weapons, they are likely to be quite a bit better than Katyushas, the Rick Ankiel of missles.
In invading, I am not seeing how the Israelis are really going to win, they have not won any sort of friends amongst the Arabs or the key party-- the Lebanese governement-- who also have reason to dislike Hezbollah's presence in southern Lebanon. The automatic response of kidnapping = bombing does not get them anything that Israel needs.
Whereever they end up drawing the border, Hezbollah will survive intact and will likely come up with a new plan to achieve their goals. Israel could let quite a bit of wind out of the sails of Hezbollah and Hamas by negotiating with the Palestinian nation but, since they insist on bludgeoning them every time some goofballs blow stuff up, there is not really any way for Israel to work towards building a responsible government outside of their own in the region. It may be that the situation is not resolveable and that no one will ever stop this stuff from going on but the approach currently being used has not worked in the past and, in terms of security, Israel while powerful still has to keep looking over their shoulder instead of into the future.