ukrneal wrote:DK wrote:BillyHallDisciple wrote:His K rate is low, but at least this year all the other results are really helping out my fantasy team big-time. I also think he's underrated. Sure, maybe he can't keep it up forever, but why nitpick about a guy with a 13-4 record and ERA in the mid-3's? Last I checked, wins and ERA still carry a ton of value in my two 12-team leagues.
I love it when people miss the boat on guys like Wang because they pick on a flaw. Adam Dunn never hits for average, but that doesn't mean you shy away from him on draft day, right? So, Wang doesn't k people. Big deal.
That's not what I mean at all. Wang's value this year has been very good - there's no denying that whatsoever. I'm talking about his value in the future. There has never - in the modern era of baseball - been a pitcher with a K rate this low who has been able to continue his success. Period. The comparison to Dunn is illogical, because players can succeed with an average of .260 - it's about average. The difference would be if Dunn only batted .190 - that's about the equivalent of Wang's K rate.
I like Wang and I hope he succeeds but at this rate, like I said earlier, he's treading in thin ice for the future.
This is pretty much true. You may find pitchers who have had one or even two good seasons with such rates, but you won't find someone who's done it more. Bill James did some sort of study on this and concluded that pitchers who didn't meet some sort of threshhold on K/9 would never be successful. I think it was around 5 or 6. It didn't have to be a career average, but at least something a rookie or young pitcher would have as it usually decreases with age. Maybe someone remembers better than I do what James was saying?
Silva is the nearest analogy and look how poorly he did this year and well last year. If his luck changes, maybe those groundballs get through for hits.
I havent followed silva that much but I know for sure his gb:fb ratio is much higher than wangs. Just look at the number of long ball that silva has given up. Also, silvas hard stuff doesnt come close to wangs either. Wang's fastball tops at 97mph on the radar gun in yankee stadium; since ppl argue yankees overclock their pitchers, wangs fastball is at least 93. This is important bc a 97 mph fastball makes his sinker and changeup that much harder to hit where as silvas fastball tops out around 90.