Tiki Barber's Barber wrote:My Drafted SP:
3rd: Pedro martinez
5th: Carlos Zambrano
9th: Danny Haren
11th: Cliff Lee
12th: Brett Myers
14th: Oliver Perez (dropped)
19th: Javier Vazquez
22nd: Matt Cain
Total Roto Points of ERA + WHIP + Ks + Ws = 24.5
League Leader's Drafted SP:
8th: Barry Zito
10th: Brandon Webb
13th: Kevin Millwood
21st: Kenny Rogers
22nd: Vicente Padilla
23rd: Matt Clement (dropped)
Total Roto Points of ERA + WHIP + Ks + Ws = 45
This league leader checks in on his team about once every week. He doesn't bench his SPs when they have bad matchups, yet his ERA and WHIP lead the league. For instance, today he had Vicente Padilla starting against the White Sox, and Padilla gives up 1 ER on 3 hits, 8 Ks. I don't get it, this guy drafted mostly bums when compared to whom I drafted, yet they give him great outings every time they go out! I can't explain it other than LUCK!!
There is much to the assertion that luck determines a pitching staff (at least from the draft point of view). It is why many profess a hitters first philosophy and abhore keeping pitchers in keeper leagues. The number of so-called Aces that turn into complete busts year to year is shocking in comparison to the number of star hitters that do the same. And every year you see these guys come out of nowhere on the pitching side...Bronson Aroroyo...you just have to be kidding me. Papelbon as a top closer...again you really can't be serious. And if we talk closers we are talking about almost a 50% turnover rate year to year. Turnbow is the latest disaster to hit keeper leagues on guys who kept a closer.
This year alone we have seen Peavy, Sheets, Harden, Prior, Burnett. Hudson, Mulder and Felix Hernandez all become total and complete busts. All were either highly rated or considered decent coming in though some obviously had serious red flags associated with them. Add in Pedro and his usual DL stint.
And who has stepped up...Glavine, Arroyo, Verlander, Liriano, Jeff Weaver, Penny, Rogers until recently, Bonderman, Josh Johnson, etc. Last year Schilling was total garbage...this year he is decent again. One year Oliver Perez is the next coming, the next he is in AAA. Pettitte last season was a stud...this year he is a scrub.
Hitters are not this unreliable. At least not usually. Obviously there are exceptions like Beltran last season and Tex this year to go along with some others like Thome last season and Chavez this season who get hit with injuries and play through them. But generally the only SPs I really trust to perform when picking them are Santana and Zambrano. I might add in Halladay, Smoltz, and maybe Carpenter. Everyone else is either too injury prone (Pedro and the like) or too inconsisent year to year. I can rattle off a least 30-40 hitters that one usually considers money in the bank though.