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joshheines wrote:The recent threads of HOF discussion got me thinking who are the active or very recently retired (last two years) who are no doubt about it mortal locks for the HOF if they retired today (or two years ago). Here's my brief list to prompt discussion.
Sticks: Barry Bonds and Mike Piazza. I'll actually leave off Ken Griffey Jr., Sammy Sosa, Frank Thomas, Larry Walker, Jeff Bagwell and Rafael Palmiero.
How can I leave Griffey off a mortal lock list? His career basically lasted from the time he was 20-30 with one season that was above average before or after that period. Bagwell has had a longer career and has a higher adjusted OPS. Beleive it or not, but Bagwell has more career SBs than the Kid. The Gold Gloves probably put him over the top. From a milestone point of view he's a lock, but taking each season apart, it's questionable (if Bagwell is).
Arms: Clemens(need I say more?), Maddux (4 Cys, 320+wins, 3000+K, led league in ERA 4 times), Johnson (5 Cys, led league in ERA 4 times, 3rd most Ks ever), Pedro (3 Cys, led league in ERA 5 times, 200 wins, 3rd best win/loss ratio of all time).
I'll leave out guys like Smoltz, Brown, Mussina, Schilling (0 Cys, never led league in ERA), Glavine, Mariano and Hoffman.
bceagles04 wrote:Barry Bonds- Lock
Mike Piazza- Lock
Ken Griffey Jr.- Lock: When all is said and done he will be over 600 career HR. He is at 555 now...lets say 570 after 06. Then even if he plays 2 more years and hits 15 HR in each, he is over 600, and that is rarified air. .292 avg. and over 1500 RBI dont hurt.
Sammy Sosa- Sammy deserves a very hard look. His numbers save that avg. are very similar to Griffey's whom we consider a lock. Steroids, corked bat, or clean, he put up 3 60 HR seasons which is unbelievable. I say he is in, but not a lock
Frank Thomas- Lock. He has missed out on some decent production the last few years due to injury, but he has had a hell of a career. SEVEN straight years of 100 runs, 25 HR, 100 RBI and a .300 avg. I haven't tried, but see if you can find someone who has equaled this that still plays today.
Larry Walker- I say no. He was great for many years in Coors. But his numbers were inflated quite a bit. Not really close to any great marks, so I say no.
Jeff Bagwell- He has great numbers. Unfortunately he never won a WS and that may or may not hurt him. Right now he is 50/50
Rafael Palmiero- I hate steroids and what they do to the game so I won't comment. He has the numbers though
Pedro - Lock
Smoltz- 177 wins, 154 saves. Thats gotta be enough for a lock. To be able to from a great starter to a dominant closer and back speaks volumes.
Brown- Great pitcher, but he just doesn't really stick out as much as others. I'm not sure why.
Mussina- He has a better shot than Schill. He has a much better record, and he is younger. He could get 250 wins.
Schilling- Tough call. He has great numbers, got the WS...but something tells me he won't get in.
Glavine- Lock. Closing in on 300 wins = a lock
Mariano- Lock. Most dominant closer in 10 years.
Hoffman- In 11 full years he has ammassed over 430 saves while being one of the most dominant closers in baseball. Lock
Two hitters you left on were Pudge and Manny, I think both are lock's.
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