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garf112 wrote:The Loveable Losers wrote:I was a doubter...his numbers last year did not look good if you delved down under the surface (less than 2-1 k/bb ratio with over 1.25 hr/9). His numbers this year are stunningly good. I'd say he deserves quite a bit of respect now...that 108ip/101k/23bb/10hr line shows that his era/whip of 3.33/1.167 actually INFLATED over what they should be (just under 3.00 era and a 1.13'ish whip). He's been an outstanding pitcher and is the right age to even get better for another couple of years. I had the chance to keep him and while my keeper I took (Rolen) worked out very well and got me some nice picks for next year in a trade I'd almost rather have Capuano as a keeper for next year now.
This is just a case of pitchers being much harder to predict than hitters. Capuano did show the signs of becoming a good pitcher, though. The problem was that some of his stats from last year (namely wins) were overinflated leading to most experts telling everyone to stay away from him. Had I, and others, looked a little bit deeper, which is funny because everybody thought that they were digging deep to see the anamoly, we would have found a pitcher that was:
26- a perfect age for a breakout season.
a HR/9 that had gone down .6.
If you went back to 2002 and 2003 you would see excellent control and command, albeit in AAA.
2004 was an injury year- and it seems that it takes about a year and a half's worth of pitching for an arm to come fully back, especially control-wise.
Which puts us at 2006.
Now, only if I had put the research in myself pre-draft, I might have picked Mr. Capuano, instead of slow-starting, but pitching well of late Doug Davis.
garf112 wrote:although Baker will still be a good pitcher; you should run the numbers on him, LL.
It seems to me that for every two dominant starters that blossom at 22,23, there is at least one that blossoms later on in their careers (typically in the 26-29 age range).
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