rainman23 wrote:Pujols was the consensus #1 player heading into 2005. He and Arod may continue to leapfrog for a while. Hard to believe Rodriguez's current performance means anything.
I agree that they've been leapfrogging. I disagree that A-Rod's current performance doesn't mean anything--especially since he had another down year in 2004.
Beltran was sniffing Top Ten for a couple seasons before Ortiz had a regular job. So this is a market correction, not a trend.
Howard, Bay, Crawford, Wright -- yeah, these are guys who first rounders (or near) for the next few years.
Manny has been so consistent for so long...hard to believe he isn't due to start heading the other way. Falling off his highest ranking ever, though, doesn't mean a lot. He became a top 5 guy for the first time ever coming off a year that was not his best. I think that was more a testimony to guys like Bonds, Sosa, Johnson, and Schilling falling off the map. And people not ready to believe in guys like Bay, Wright, etc. yet. If he slides back to 10-15 next year -- again, that's his historical positioning.
Great points. The Manny of 2002-2004 would probably be the #2 or #3 overall player this year.
In no way is it time to proclaim Wright the new 3rd base king yet. But he can play on my team.
I don't know if you're in New York, but the media here have already made up their mind. Of course, it's not like the media should be relied upon . . .
This may be only temporary
2005 was the first time in my FBB career where Rivera was the #1 closer. He never got as many opportunities as a Gagne, or as many K's as a Gagne / Lidge / Krod type. So it's no great surprise that he may revert to form this year. Great closer, not necessarily best fantasy closer. But you're right, though -- he ain't getting any younger.
Rivera was always guaranteed to be one of the top 3-4 closers. That value cannot be overstated--closer situations are so volatile that very few guys even have their jobs nailed down year-to-year.
If you're talking about the dominant fantasy guys for the next decade, you might want to keep Teixiera and Cabrera on the list too.
McCab has lineup issues. Teix took a gigantic, humongous step backwards this year. He may be back up there by 2008, but I just can't list him as an elite player after this stinkbomb of 2006 so far.
Soriano -- not new. Steadily declined for three years, now he's rebounding a little. The "new guard" he ain't.
Probably a market correction like Beltran, as you noted above. But he was being underestimated--though I'm not sure how people continue to underestimate a reliable 30/30 guy.