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WHIP: The most important pitching category.

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Postby Zito is God » Mon Jun 12, 2006 4:13 pm

garf112 wrote:
Zito is God wrote:The thing is, I agree that Ks are arguably the most solid stat because you are not giving the hitter even a chance to beat out a grounder or get a sac fly etc. However, there are many pitchers who simply are not K pitchers, yet do a solid job on the mound. This is where WHIP comes in. There are so many sinkerballer pitchers who just get infinite groundouts during their starts but have a low K ratio so they get passed by.


Doesn't this make gb/fb ratio the most important stat? Not WHIP

It actually could be debated that it is.


I think it is debatable, but you can have a very good ratio and still give up a ton of hits and runs being a sinkerballer. You don't HAVE to give up HRs to be a bad pitcher. GB/FB is a big reason I traded Vazques away (I am regretting it now because the guy I got for him...well, lets just say I REALLY needed a shortstop). Yet I will say again that WHIP means you aren't giving up the hits period, GB/FB could still have a high WHIP and is simply giving up a lot of grounders.
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Postby moochman » Mon Jun 12, 2006 4:18 pm

Overall I would agree that WHIP is the one indicator of pitching excellence. It demonstrates a pitchers control and talent. In other words his pitching ability. A pitcher can either be a high K guy, sinkerballer, or a nibbler but his ability to keep people off base is a good indicator of his command of his skill set.


I will take a high K rate in a young pitcher over his WHIP though. I feel that young pitchers are a little too erratic to be consistant, but Ks are usually there.
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Postby acsguitar » Mon Jun 12, 2006 4:19 pm

I like Whip and K's
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Postby Pogotheostrich » Mon Jun 12, 2006 4:23 pm

Zito is God wrote:This is the point I was trying to get across. I do not mean you do not look at any other stats. I look at K/9, K/BB, ERA, IP, GB/FB, and WHIP. I simply meant that I believe that A) If I had to choose one stat I would go with WHIP, and B) I think WHIP is a more important indicator of performance then any others.


I think WHIP is the best indicator of performance but I don't think it is the best predictor of future performances. Does that make sense? To me WHIP is the best tool to examine how a pitcher did but K/BB is a much better tool for determining how a pitcher will pitch in the future.
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Postby J35J » Mon Jun 12, 2006 5:26 pm

garf112 wrote:
Zito is God wrote:
garf112 wrote:
Zito is God wrote:The thing is, I agree that Ks are arguably the most solid stat because you are not giving the hitter even a chance to beat out a grounder or get a sac fly etc. However, there are many pitchers who simply are not K pitchers, yet do a solid job on the mound. This is where WHIP comes in. There are so many sinkerballer pitchers who just get infinite groundouts during their starts but have a low K ratio so they get passed by.


Doesn't this make gb/fb ratio the most important stat? Not WHIP

It actually could be debated that it is.


I think it is debatable, but you can have a very good ratio and still give up a ton of hits and runs being a sinkerballer. You don't HAVE to give up HRs to be a bad pitcher. GB/FB is a big reason I traded Vazques away (I am regretting it now because the guy I got for him...well, lets just say I REALLY needed a shortstop). Yet I will say again that WHIP means you aren't giving up the hits period, GB/FB could still have a high WHIP and is simply giving up a lot of grounders.


Basically to be a successful pitcher you need to do three things:

1) Strike people out
2) Keep people from hitting the ball in the air
3) Limit your walks

In that order. If you can do all three, you are an elite pitcher. If you break pitchers into categories, the best strike guys out and have a high gb%.... There are about 8 categories and the worst are flyball pitchers that don't strike anybody out.


WHIP has too much luck involved in it. Any pitcher will allow balls to fall in for hits at about a 30% rate.

If you are unable to find these stats, you might be better off just going with WHIP, but knowing that it is a flawed statistic.



I would have to disagree with the bolded. From the 3 you mentioned, here is how I would make the order of importance......

1. Limit your walks
2. Limit your walks
3. Strike people out
4. Keep people from hitting the ball in the air

Jason
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Postby PlayingWithFire » Mon Jun 12, 2006 5:31 pm

WHIP is a good predicter but HR given up is really important. After all, R is what really counts in a ball game when it comes to winning or lossing. Classic Example, Boof Bonser against the A's.

7 innings 5 hits 4er no walks 3 HR given up.

Is that really a good performance? From the WHIP it would appear to be one.
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Postby PlayingWithFire » Mon Jun 12, 2006 5:34 pm

J35J wrote:
garf112 wrote:
Zito is God wrote:
garf112 wrote:
Zito is God wrote:The thing is, I agree that Ks are arguably the most solid stat because you are not giving the hitter even a chance to beat out a grounder or get a sac fly etc. However, there are many pitchers who simply are not K pitchers, yet do a solid job on the mound. This is where WHIP comes in. There are so many sinkerballer pitchers who just get infinite groundouts during their starts but have a low K ratio so they get passed by.


Doesn't this make gb/fb ratio the most important stat? Not WHIP

It actually could be debated that it is.


I think it is debatable, but you can have a very good ratio and still give up a ton of hits and runs being a sinkerballer. You don't HAVE to give up HRs to be a bad pitcher. GB/FB is a big reason I traded Vazques away (I am regretting it now because the guy I got for him...well, lets just say I REALLY needed a shortstop). Yet I will say again that WHIP means you aren't giving up the hits period, GB/FB could still have a high WHIP and is simply giving up a lot of grounders.


Basically to be a successful pitcher you need to do three things:

1) Strike people out
2) Keep people from hitting the ball in the air
3) Limit your walks

In that order. If you can do all three, you are an elite pitcher. If you break pitchers into categories, the best strike guys out and have a high gb%.... There are about 8 categories and the worst are flyball pitchers that don't strike anybody out.


WHIP has too much luck involved in it. Any pitcher will allow balls to fall in for hits at about a 30% rate.

If you are unable to find these stats, you might be better off just going with WHIP, but knowing that it is a flawed statistic.



I would have to disagree with the bolded. From the 3 you mentioned, here is how I would make the order of importance......

1. Limit your walks
2. Limit your walks
3. Strike people out
4. Keep people from hitting the ball in the air

Jason


is fb/gb ratio really that important? Jered Weaver is a fly ball pitcher and he's being successful.

really I think it's

1. Strike people out
2. Keep people from hitting the ball hard
3. Limit Walks(you can have success by nibbling and walk a few a game, see: Josh Johnson)
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Postby The Loveable Losers » Mon Jun 12, 2006 5:42 pm

garf112 wrote:
Zito is God wrote:
garf112 wrote:
Zito is God wrote:The thing is, I agree that Ks are arguably the most solid stat because you are not giving the hitter even a chance to beat out a grounder or get a sac fly etc. However, there are many pitchers who simply are not K pitchers, yet do a solid job on the mound. This is where WHIP comes in. There are so many sinkerballer pitchers who just get infinite groundouts during their starts but have a low K ratio so they get passed by.


Doesn't this make gb/fb ratio the most important stat? Not WHIP

It actually could be debated that it is.


I think it is debatable, but you can have a very good ratio and still give up a ton of hits and runs being a sinkerballer. You don't HAVE to give up HRs to be a bad pitcher. GB/FB is a big reason I traded Vazques away (I am regretting it now because the guy I got for him...well, lets just say I REALLY needed a shortstop). Yet I will say again that WHIP means you aren't giving up the hits period, GB/FB could still have a high WHIP and is simply giving up a lot of grounders.


Basically to be a successful pitcher you need to do three things:

1) Strike people out
2) Keep people from hitting the ball in the air
3) Limit your walks

In that order. If you can do all three, you are an elite pitcher. If you break pitchers into categories, the best strike guys out and have a high gb%.... There are about 8 categories and the worst are flyball pitchers that don't strike anybody out.

WHIP has too much luck involved in it. Any pitcher will allow balls to fall in for hits at about a 30% rate.

If you are unable to find these stats, you might be better off just going with WHIP, but knowing that it is a flawed statistic.


First I completely agree with this post and that will save me a lot of the typing I needed to do.

Second I agree with Zito is God in one regard - if I had to pick one number from the 'back of the baseball card' type statistics it would be whip. It's certainly better than era or wins. If I was allowed to make one minor calculation I think I'd almost rather go with k/bb than whip but it's close.

Lastly I use two numbers when I'm actually evaluating pitchers. They're both projected numbers - one projects era and the other projects whip.

DICE = 3.00 + ((13 * HR + 3 * BB&HBP - 2 * K) / IP)

pWhip = ((0.4 * (3 * IP - K)) + BB + HR) / IP

DICE was created by Voros McCracken. pWhip I created myself but if you read the article it's more common sense based on the work that others have done than any huge leap that I made myself. These numbers can be spit out to you en masse by dumping projections/past year's data into a spreadsheet and making an extra column for both of the numbers. If you want to delve even deeper I would recommend looking at gb/fb percentages (ground ball pitchers will give up fewer extra base hits overall which isn't reflected here...only the home runs are reflected here) and also look at the hr/f ratio normalized to park (The Hardball Times is a good place to get stats like that) as anything significantly different from 11-12% would be a cause to expect a regression back to the mean in home run totals.
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Postby J35J » Mon Jun 12, 2006 5:48 pm

PlayingWithFire wrote:
J35J wrote:
garf112 wrote:
Zito is God wrote:
garf112 wrote:
Zito is God wrote:The thing is, I agree that Ks are arguably the most solid stat because you are not giving the hitter even a chance to beat out a grounder or get a sac fly etc. However, there are many pitchers who simply are not K pitchers, yet do a solid job on the mound. This is where WHIP comes in. There are so many sinkerballer pitchers who just get infinite groundouts during their starts but have a low K ratio so they get passed by.


Doesn't this make gb/fb ratio the most important stat? Not WHIP

It actually could be debated that it is.


I think it is debatable, but you can have a very good ratio and still give up a ton of hits and runs being a sinkerballer. You don't HAVE to give up HRs to be a bad pitcher. GB/FB is a big reason I traded Vazques away (I am regretting it now because the guy I got for him...well, lets just say I REALLY needed a shortstop). Yet I will say again that WHIP means you aren't giving up the hits period, GB/FB could still have a high WHIP and is simply giving up a lot of grounders.


Basically to be a successful pitcher you need to do three things:

1) Strike people out
2) Keep people from hitting the ball in the air
3) Limit your walks

In that order. If you can do all three, you are an elite pitcher. If you break pitchers into categories, the best strike guys out and have a high gb%.... There are about 8 categories and the worst are flyball pitchers that don't strike anybody out.


WHIP has too much luck involved in it. Any pitcher will allow balls to fall in for hits at about a 30% rate.

If you are unable to find these stats, you might be better off just going with WHIP, but knowing that it is a flawed statistic.



I would have to disagree with the bolded. From the 3 you mentioned, here is how I would make the order of importance......

1. Limit your walks
2. Limit your walks
3. Strike people out
4. Keep people from hitting the ball in the air

Jason


is fb/gb ratio really that important? Jered Weaver is a fly ball pitcher and he's being successful.

really I think it's

1. Strike people out
2. Keep people from hitting the ball hard
3. Limit Walks(you can have success by nibbling and walk a few a game, see: Josh Johnson)



Hmmm, I'm really amazed that people don't realize that limiting walks is the most important thing a pitcher can do..... :-?

Jason
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Postby The Loveable Losers » Mon Jun 12, 2006 5:49 pm

PlayingWithFire wrote:is fb/gb ratio really that important? Jered Weaver is a fly ball pitcher and he's being successful.


Weaver is succeeding because of a 9.1 k/9 and 1.6 bb/9 ratio. You can get away with a 24.5% ground ball percentage when you put up ratios like that. With his gb% you would expect about 2.44 hr's so far for him...he's given up 2. We're looking at a VERY small sample size with Weaver but assuming his hr/9 goes up to about 1.31 hr/9 where it should be based on his extreme fly ball tendencies but he manages to stay steady with the k/9 and bb/9 numbers you could expect an era of about 3.41 and a whip of about 1.189. If you strike out over a batter an inning and walk less than two batters a game then you can give up a tater every outing and live to tell about it.
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