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Top 5 closers in a keeper league?

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Postby The Loveable Losers » Mon Jun 12, 2006 5:20 pm

Nerfherders wrote:4. Stuff. This is easy enough to evaluate. It's simply K rate vs. ERA. Closing is all about NOT putting the ball in play. K's are gold for relievers.


I'd probably go a little deeper here and use some projected era and whip numbers. Here's an example of each:
DICE = 3.00 + ((13 * HR + 3 * BB&HBP - 2 * K) / IP)

pWhip = ((0.4 * (3 * IP - K)) + BB + HR) / IP

These numbers are based completely on striking out batters without giving up walks and home runs. While most closers get good numbers by striking out a lot of hitters you can be successful as a closer by walking very few batters and giving up almost no home runs as well. The lower these numbers are the better chance for success as a closer and as a pitcher in general. But these are crucial for a closer because while a SP can give up a run every other inning and get by a closer really can not.
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Postby ravenmad22 » Mon Jun 12, 2006 5:37 pm

Chris Ray may be entering this discussion soon.

Shhhh.
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Postby ravenmad22 » Mon Jun 12, 2006 6:12 pm

garf112 wrote:
ravenmad22 wrote:Chris Ray may be entering this discussion soon.

Shhhh.


I was trying to keep him out of the conversation... ;-7


Right. Still think Encarnacion can hit 30 dongs? God I need him to get back on the field and start producing. I traded for him when he had 6 HR about 5 weeks ago and I think he's only hit one since then.

Sorry for the hijack.
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Postby mweir145 » Mon Jun 12, 2006 6:14 pm

Nerfherders wrote:There are a few things you need to look at when you are considering keeper closers. They arent like keeper starters - a closer is not someone you lock up for 5 years because the nature of the position. Just look at Francisco Cordero.

1. Does he have the job locked up? Meaning, if the guy decided to blow 3 or 4 saves in a row would he still have his job?

2. Is there even a small chance he goes to the rotation? You never know how a pitcher will handle the change, or if he will be worth a keeper spot in that situation.

3. Age. Not as important as a hitter or even a starter, but you want a guy young enough that you know he'll be playing for at least 4 more years at his current level. Also, you dont want someone so young or inexperienced you dont know how he will handle pressure later on.

4. Stuff. This is easy enough to evaluate. It's simply K rate vs. ERA. Closing is all about NOT putting the ball in play. K's are gold for relievers.

5. Consistency. You want guys who have done it and done it well from year to year. And stay healthy

That being said, here are my top 5 keeper closers:

1. Francisco Rodriguez. Without a doubt the best combination of all the factors above.
2. Brad Lidge. A little shaky this year but still great overall.
3. Joe Nathan. Has everything but opps this season.
4. Billy Wagner. Would be #2 if not for health concerns.
5. Mariano Rivera. Consistency at its prime.

Papelbon has been good but he's been in the majors for 2 months. I'm not going to bet the farm on him just yet. Not even after one season. The book hasnt even gotten around on this guy, esp since he's a reliever and the hitters havent gotten alot of looks at him. If he keeps it up by the end of 2007 he could make the list. Jenks is pretty much the same deal. My darkhorse is Fuentes. He's fantastic but he needs another 4-5 months before I say he's the real deal.

Very surprised you didn't mention B.J Ryan at all. He's got a job locked up for 5 years on what looks to be a very good team. He easily passes those 5 questions that you asked there. So what gives?
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Postby mikegp » Mon Jun 12, 2006 6:48 pm

mweir145 wrote:
Nerfherders wrote:There are a few things you need to look at when you are considering keeper closers. They arent like keeper starters - a closer is not someone you lock up for 5 years because the nature of the position. Just look at Francisco Cordero.

1. Does he have the job locked up? Meaning, if the guy decided to blow 3 or 4 saves in a row would he still have his job?

2. Is there even a small chance he goes to the rotation? You never know how a pitcher will handle the change, or if he will be worth a keeper spot in that situation.

3. Age. Not as important as a hitter or even a starter, but you want a guy young enough that you know he'll be playing for at least 4 more years at his current level. Also, you dont want someone so young or inexperienced you dont know how he will handle pressure later on.

4. Stuff. This is easy enough to evaluate. It's simply K rate vs. ERA. Closing is all about NOT putting the ball in play. K's are gold for relievers.

5. Consistency. You want guys who have done it and done it well from year to year. And stay healthy

That being said, here are my top 5 keeper closers:

1. Francisco Rodriguez. Without a doubt the best combination of all the factors above.
2. Brad Lidge. A little shaky this year but still great overall.
3. Joe Nathan. Has everything but opps this season.
4. Billy Wagner. Would be #2 if not for health concerns.
5. Mariano Rivera. Consistency at its prime.

Papelbon has been good but he's been in the majors for 2 months. I'm not going to bet the farm on him just yet. Not even after one season. The book hasnt even gotten around on this guy, esp since he's a reliever and the hitters havent gotten alot of looks at him. If he keeps it up by the end of 2007 he could make the list. Jenks is pretty much the same deal. My darkhorse is Fuentes. He's fantastic but he needs another 4-5 months before I say he's the real deal.

Very surprised you didn't mention B.J Ryan at all. He's got a job locked up for 5 years on what looks to be a very good team. He easily passes those 5 questions that you asked there. So what gives?


I agree! There is no way BJ will be loosing his closing job with the money he is getting paid by the jays. Plus Fuentes over Ryan????? Ryan has a .67 WHIP and .61 ERA and a 37/6 k/bb ratio. Ryan has been amazing since 2004. I'm not even sure how you could take someone like Lidge over him. He strikes out just as many guys and doesn't give up huge bombs every couple of games.
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Postby brandnew » Mon Jun 12, 2006 6:57 pm

1. Nathan
2. KRod
3. Ryan
4. Street
5. Fuentes

I left off Lidge because I think his arm is going to fall off sooner or later
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Postby Insanity » Mon Jun 12, 2006 8:16 pm

I kept BJ Ryan in a four player keeper league coming into the league..

I'm with the people that say it depends on the number of keepers.. If you have five or less, I'd say its very hard to keep a closer..

I have both Ryan and Palpebon right now... I might have a hard time keeping either one of them with: Howard, Holliday, ARam (given the normal slow start and injury history, might not keep him), Chris Young, Hamels, Liriano?
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Postby acsguitar » Tue Jun 13, 2006 3:34 pm

Fuentes is a great sleeper closer so I wouldn't keep him.

as the rockies get better he could get tons more saves
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Postby SwisherSweet » Tue Jun 13, 2006 4:16 pm

RYAN
STREET
KROD
LIDGE
JENKS
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