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Postby mak1277 » Mon Jun 12, 2006 8:49 am

Stat isn't worth much unless there's some correlation with another stat or set of facts to make it predictive and not just based on luck. I mean, Snell's ERA and WHIP aren't exactly special, and he's managed 7 wins on a below average team. Look at Doug Davis versus Capuano last year. Pitched for the same team, had very similar stats, Cap crushed him in wins. No way to predict something like that.
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Postby Philliebuster » Mon Jun 12, 2006 8:55 am

Snell is on the pirates though, do you take that into consideration, the run support he most likely would get.
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Postby MikeFromNY » Mon Jun 12, 2006 9:07 am

Y`s Guy wrote:BUT...once the season starts the pattern is set. You see the winners and the hard-luck guys.


I don't think that's true.
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Postby mak1277 » Mon Jun 12, 2006 9:08 am

So you consider it somewhat predictive of performance for the rest of the year? In other words, you feel like Wakefield's WEFF (or whatever) will continue to be poor?

Isn't it just as likely that he would regress to the mean, which would indicate that now would be a good time to trade for him?
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Postby MikeFromNY » Mon Jun 12, 2006 9:14 am

mak1277 wrote:So you consider it somewhat predictive of performance for the rest of the year? In other words, you feel like Wakefield's WEFF (or whatever) will continue to be poor?

Isn't it just as likely that he would regress to the mean, which would indicate that now would be a good time to trade for him?


That's the way I look at it.

Things based on "luck" aren't predictive.
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Postby Philliebuster » Mon Jun 12, 2006 9:36 am

Alright lets take a guy like Kelvim Escobar, compared to Ian Snell, would you take Snell over Escobar? Escobar has been pitching great, but has not the wins to prove it. KE is on the more winning team and the Angels are heating up. How could one justify taking Snell over someone like that?
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Postby mak1277 » Mon Jun 12, 2006 9:41 am

Y`s Guy wrote:I think the guys so far with great WEFF numbers are pitching well and will continue.


I'll admit this is a somewhat silly example, but:

O. Villarreal - 4.3 innings per win, 4.99 ERA, 1.57 WHIP. Now, I can't imagine you're jumping all over this guy.

Do you honestly believe Wandy is going to keep his pace up? He plays for a team is, to date, very average. His WHIP and ERA numbers are average at best also. If anything, to me, I'd be selling Wandy because I don't think he could keep this pace up.

Your "stat" might be valuable if there were some sort of historical average. In other words, if the "average" pitcher earned a win every "x" innings. You could then buy or sell based on variances from that average. But to simply say, so-and-so has a high or low WEFF, so I'm going to sell or buy him... in a vacuum, that's meaningless.
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