Return to Injuries & Player Updates

Potential stud pitcher - Casey Janssen

Moderator: Baseball Moderators

Postby sportsguy138 » Sun Jun 11, 2006 12:46 pm

TurdFerguson wrote:
flooredyas wrote:
TurdFerguson wrote:The guy has mediocre stuff

But awesome results
Teams will strat to figure him out when they start to see him more and get scouting reports on him

as a jays fan i have to say... hes been pitchin very well...

but imo.. he wont keep this up for the whole year..

he will have a few up and downs.. but a pretty good pitcher none the less
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

CafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerGraphics ExpertMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeWeb SupporterPick 3 Weekly WinnerLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 8778
(Past Year: 23)
Joined: 21 Feb 2006
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby The Loveable Losers » Mon Jun 12, 2006 10:03 am

First of all, on the strikeout issue...Janssen struck out 8.22 batters per 9 innings over his time in the minors. He's not a terrible strikeout pitcher though I wouldn't expect huge numbers there from him.

More importantly though he showed outstanding control with a 1.12 bb/9 and he does a good job of getting ground balls which allowed him to only give up 0.37 hr/9 in the minors.

In the major leagues while the strikeouts are down the rest of his numbers are right where you would expect them to be. He's put up a k/9 of 4.37 but with a bb/9 of 1.29 and a hr/9 of 0.65. While he's been a little lucky on the number of home runs given up (a park adjusted hr/f of 8.4%) even if we adjust that up to 11% that would still give him a hr/9 of 0.85 which is very good.

Using the adjusted hr/9 we can expect an era of 3.89 and a whip of 1.244. I would consider that a WORST case with Janssen as his 57% ground ball percentage mitigates his extra base hit risk while he's always shown great control which lowers the risk for big innings. Those skills aren't going to deteriorate and since the era/whip projections are based off of those skills the only variable is his strikeout rate. Given that he's striking out batters at nearly half the rate he did in the minors I think there's quite a bit of room for growth and improvement here. I don't think we can ever expect Janssen to get back to his minor league numbers - there's a reason those hitters are in the minor leagues - but I don't think it would be unreasonable to expect about 6 k/9 out of Janssen. If he can get his numbers to that point his expected era drops to 3.52 and his expected whip to 1.171.

Disclaimer time...Janssen is a young pitcher coming out of college and was only a 4th round pick. He could certainly be playing over his head and has the equivalent of one full season in TOTAL pro experience. It's a very small sample size to analyze and he could slip back easily. But the numbers he's put up to this point indicate a solid fantasy option that could develop into a very good SP. The lack of k's are certainly a concern in some formats but in real life even his terrible k/9 at the major league level this year can sustain him as a successful pitcher since he gives up so few walks and extra base hits.
Hope springs eternal
grows like ivy on the vine
then dies in the fall

--Haiku for a Cubs Fan, The Loveable Losers
The Loveable Losers
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterWeb Supporter
Posts: 7563
(Past Year: 273)
Joined: 30 Mar 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Cubs Win!!! Cubs Win!!!

Postby TonyCee » Mon Jun 12, 2006 11:11 am

Awesome insight Loveable Losers!! ;-D Thanks for the info :-)
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar

Posts: 1068
Joined: 26 Jan 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball


Return to Injuries & Player Updates

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 0 guests