I love the party analogy.
You know what? Last year Dunn hit 20 homers with the bases empty. He hit 20 homers with runners on. That's better
than average. He hit .249 with the bases empty. He hit .248 with RISP. That's pretty telling, eh?
He's not off to a great RISP start this year, but c'mon people. It's chance.
Yep, he doesn't hit well with RISP because he doesn't EVER hit well. He hits a normal number of hr's with people on base but it seems like he doesn't because you don't see a lot of rbi's from him. It's not because he doesn't hit home runs with people on base...it's because he rarely gets hits with people on base period.
His average is and always will be terrible unless he changes his approach at the plate or hits a huge string of luck. And even then there's only so much that luck can do for him. He strikes out ONE THIRD OF HIS AT BATS! This year is nothing new - he's always done this.
On the other hand his hr/ab% is UP this year from the 7's over the last couple of years to the high 8's (around 8.8% to date). His walk per plate appearance is up from the 17-18% range into the 19% range. Adam Dunn is improving his plate discipline and his power.
So basically it boils down to this - Adam Dunn is Adam Dunn. There's some people like him but no one that takes it to the level he does. You either like the r/hr combo enough to live with the terrible average and the decent (but not awesome) rbi's or you don't. He's unique enough as a player that there can be some interesting strategies related to him - especially in h2h (stacking up on high average guys to offset him, punting average, etc). His dual-eligibillity even makes it more interesting. He's just one of those guys that makes fantasy baseball interesting.