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Is Kim the closer in Boston??

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Is Kim the closer in Boston??

Postby La§ Aguila§ » Mon Aug 04, 2003 9:32 pm

Sorry if someone already asked this question.
[b]DoMiNiCaN FoR LiFe ![/b]
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Postby jerrycantrell » Mon Aug 04, 2003 9:46 pm

yes, now go back to sleep
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Postby Madison » Tue Aug 05, 2003 1:28 am

jerrycantrell wrote:yes, now go back to sleep

Lol. :-D

Yes, Kim is the closer right now.
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Kim Closing

Postby d18Mike » Tue Aug 05, 2003 11:23 am

I saw a stat analysis earllier this year that divided closers into 4 categories depending on the % of blown saves (BS) and took a look at how long they were able to maintain their roles based on this ratio. I wish I would have kept the full article, but in a nutshell.

Closers who consistently blown 20%+ of saves don't stay in the role for long.
An average closer blows 15-20%.
A high-quality closer blows 10-15%
Studs like Gagne and Smoltz -10% (in their cases nearer to 5%.)

The flaw here of course is that a closer on a poor team generally enters a lot more games with a 1-2 run lead and his margin is far slimmer. They did not adjust for this, but all things being equal ....

Kim has fairly consistently fallen into the Average closer category.

Williamson, however, has a career 25% BS rate. Wow!

My numbers may be a bit off, I'm working from memory.
Last edited by d18Mike on Tue Aug 05, 2003 12:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby jdh » Tue Aug 05, 2003 11:59 am

However, those stats for both Williamson and Kim are probably scewed, and here's why. It doesn't matter what inning you come in, if you come in with a 3 run or less lead or with the tying runner on deck, it's considered a save opp. If a setup man comes in in a 5-4 game to relieve the starter who has just loaded the bases with no outs, and then gets a strikeout, sac fly and groundout, he still gets charged with a blown save, because the lead has been given up, despite not giving up any hits or walks, and in all rights doing an excellent job limiting the damage and cleaning up the mess. Setup men tend to be brought into this type of situation on a regular basis, while closers are usually brought in to pitch a clean inning in most cases.

The reason why that's important is that both Kim and Williamson were setup men for a large part of their careers. Williamson was never really a closer before this year, and Kim was only a closer for the second half of 2001 and all of 2002. So, you'd have to look up their saves and blown saves for only when they were officially annointed as closers to really gauge their effectiveness, because blown holds can skew those stats, especially when you're comparing their effectiveness rates to those of guys like Smoltz and Gagne who have only closed when they've been relievers.
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