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Jason Giambi - Hall a Fame? What say you!

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Postby TheYanks04 » Sat Jun 03, 2006 1:13 pm

Matthias wrote:
TheYanks04 wrote:
George_Foreman wrote:I mean, he's got to at least get to 500 HRs. That doesn't seem impossible right now, but lets remember that the man is like 35. If he plays into his 40s at a high level, then sure, he'll get in. But if he hits a wall at like 38? I doubt it.

I figure he'll finish with like 450-480 HRs and won't get in. Oh, and steroids will have little to nothing to do with it.



He will be 36 going into next season with somewhere around 360 HRs. Meaning he needs to have good years at ages 36, 37 and 38 realistically. If we assume a conservative avg of 35 HRs each of those 3 years and assuming he is healthy and doesn't break down, he would be at about 465. Meaning all he would really need to do is avg 18 hrs the next 2 yrs at ages 39 and 40 to make it. Or continue to hit another 35 at age 39.

He does not need to perform into his 40s like Bonds. He basically needs to perform at a fairly high level to around age 39. Certainly not impossible. I just think it is unlikely that he can stay healthy during that period. He really can't afford another serious injury. And his body will start to break down as he gets older, so he could fall off at age 37, 38 too.


I don't think Giambi hitting 105 HRs over the next three years is a conservative estimate. Hitters peak around 30 and then start falling off. As Giambi falls off, he'll also see fewer plate appearances giving fewer opportunities meaning fewer HRs.

You want a "conservative estimate" of Giambi's 2007-2009 HR totals? I'll say 55-60.



Like I said, if he stays healthy and does not break down, that is a conservative estimate. There is no way to know when a player begins to breakdown. Some like Sheff and Kent and others continue to perform into their late 30s. Giambi hardly has the ideal body type for longevity, but I see no reason to assume a collapse at age 36 or 37 as opposed to 38 or 39 or whatever. That is sheer speculation and you can use the Magic 8 ball on that if you want.

I myself would tend to doubt he can stay healthy too, but it is not outside the realm of reason and 3 more good years to age 38 is all he really needs to do to have a very good shot at 500. If he stayed healthy, we know he can actualy do better than 35 a year and push the low 40s.
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Postby CubsFan7724 » Sat Jun 03, 2006 1:19 pm

10 comparable players through age 34
1. Mo Vaughn (940)
2. Jim Edmonds (908)
3. Tim Salmon (904)
4. Willie McCovey (892) *
5. Ryan Klesko (886)
6. Willie Stargell (884) *
7. Kent Hrbek (883)
8. Fred McGriff (879)
9. Tino Martinez (875)
10. Gil Hodges (874)

Hes borderline at best, more than likely.
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Postby George_Foreman » Sat Jun 03, 2006 1:23 pm

I agree with DK that he's got good numbers. I just don't think he's done it long enough yet. If he has like 3-5 more strong years, he could get in, but I just don't know how well I see him aging.

Still, perhaps I was a bit pecimistic when I said he'd need 500 HRs to get in to the hall. But given his era, it would seem like he'd have to have very strong power numbers to make it.
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Postby George_Foreman » Sat Jun 03, 2006 1:29 pm

Also, look at the other 1Bs to whom he'll be compared: Mark McGuire, Frank Thomas, and Jim Thome, all of whom are superior players to Giambi, and that's before you start talking about guys like Bagwell, Helton, and McGriff.

I just think it's clear that Giambi's got an up-hill battle.
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Postby TheYanks04 » Sat Jun 03, 2006 1:29 pm

George_Foreman wrote:I agree with DK that he's got good numbers. I just don't think he's done it long enough yet. If he has like 3-5 more strong years, he could get in, but I just don't know how well I see him aging.

Still, perhaps I was a bit pecimistic when I said he'd need 500 HRs to get in to the hall. But given his era, it would seem like he'd have to have very strong power numbers to make it.



Actually, I think with the roid cloud over him, he needs to get to a HOF marker like 500 Hrs to get in. The writers are going to be inclined to punish the roiders (and rightfully so), so borderline guys like Giambi will not get the benefit of the doubt from enough writers imo if they fall just short.

500 HRs has been an automatic entry into the HOF. And the only 2 players that had really questionable numbers for HOF entry that almost got to 500 (McGriff and Canseco), never did make it to 500 so that marker has never been tested. And Palmeiro is not going to be the guy to change that marker imo as they are going to put him in eventually imo.
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Postby BronXBombers51 » Sat Jun 03, 2006 1:38 pm

Right now, no, but it's got nothing to do with steroids.

If he has a few more very productive seasons he can at least be considered.
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Postby Tavish » Sat Jun 03, 2006 1:51 pm

DK wrote:Wow, I'm not a Giambi lover by any means but you guys are seriously underrating him.

Career .295, .413 OBP, .539 Slugging. 1150 RC career. 36th all-time in OPS+, ahead of Mike Schmidt, Ralph Kiner, Duke Snider, and tons of other HoFers. Never a good fielder (although - weird - he played a little third at the beginning of his career and was pretty good) but from 1999-2003 was probably the best hitter in the AL, or at least even with Manny Ramirez.

He's a not a very good hitter - he's a great hitter. Do I think he's a HoFer? I don't know - not yet, anyway. Give him a few years.


He has great numbers, but the problem is that he will be judged against a number of other great hitters. There are 5 active players ahead of him right now on the career OPS+ list and another 14 within 10 points. His most comparable players are Mo Vaughn and David Justice, and he has never lead the league in any of the Triple Crown categories.

I think its going to take a fairly strong finish to his career for him to be a strong candidate for the Hall. Without that he will be a unlikely bubble guy along the lines of McGriff.

Keltner Test
#1 Was he ever regarded as the best player in baseball? Did anybody, while he was active, ever suggest that he was the best player in baseball?
During his 3 year peak in Oakland/NY it could be argued he was the best player in the AL. A-Rod tended to get that label more often. His peak conisided with Bonds' peak so it would be almost impossible to argue Giambi as the best in baseball.

#2 Was he the best player on his team?
His last 3 seasons in Oakland and his first in NY he was the best player on his team.

#3 Was he the best player in baseball at his position? Was he the best player in the league at his position?
For a few seasons yes to both. In most other seasons that title would go to Delgado, Thome, Pujols, McGwire, or Bagwell.

#4 Did he have an impact on a number of pennant races?
Playing in Oakland during the height of their postseason run and then NY this should be yes. In his MVP season he carried the Oakland offense.

#5 Was he good enough that he could play regularly after passing his prime?

Still remains to be seen.

#6 Is he the very best baseball player in history who is not in the Hall of Fame?

This is another one that remains to be seen, it depends on how the voting for players like Belle, McGwire, Thomas, Bagwell goes.

#7 Are most players who have comparable statistics in the Hall of Fame?

Right now, no. Of his top 10 most comparable players, only Ralph Kiner made it in. Four of the 10 are still active, but other than Delgado they would all have to be considered longshots to make the Hall.

#8 Do the player's numbers meet Hall of Fame standards?

Right now, no. 13 in Black Ink (average HoF 27), 98 Gray Ink (Ave 144), 35.2 HoF Standards (Ave 50), 90 HoF Monitor (Ave 100).

#9 Is there any evidence to suggest that the player was significantly better or worse than is suggested by his statistics?
Playing in Oakland's pitcher's park hurt his numbers somewhat, although a great deal of his OPS is OBP driven.

#10 Is he the best player at his position who is eligible for the Hall of Fame?
See #5. If any of those 1B fail to make the Hall when Giambi becomes eligible then no.

#11 How many MVP-type seasons did he have? Did he ever win an MVP award? If not, how many times was he close?

1 MVP award, 2 other Top 5, 2 more Top 10.

#12 How many All-Star-type seasons did he have? How many All-Star games did he play in? Did most of the players who played in this many All-Star games go into the Hall of Fame?

5 Time All-Star. Usually All-Star games aren't a great predictor until you get close to the double digit mark.

#13 If this man were the best player on his team, would it be likely that the team could win the pennant?

At his peak, yes. He was a dominant offensive force.

#14 What impact did the player have on baseball history? Was he responsible for any rule changes? Did he introduce any new equipment? Did he change the game in any way?
#15 Did the player uphold the standards of sportsmanship and character that the Hall of Fame, in its written guidelines, instructs us to consider?


Both of these will be linked with the steroid debate and be held at the discretion of the Baseball Writers. There are enough threads devoted to the subject.
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Postby blankman » Sat Jun 03, 2006 3:57 pm

What I think will end up ruining his chances is 2004. His injury-riddled year brought only 12 HR's to his total, while had he hit say 30, his chase for 500 would be made much easier. If he makes it to 500 I'd think his MVP and OBP would give him a pretty good shot at it.

But if I had to say either way, I think he'll fall short of the HOF by a small margin.
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Postby CadensDad » Sat Jun 03, 2006 4:00 pm

Check back in 3 or 4 years and lets see his numbers then.It's too early to tell right now.
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Postby Strasil42 » Sat Jun 03, 2006 4:09 pm

Tavish wrote:
DK wrote:Wow, I'm not a Giambi lover by any means but you guys are seriously underrating him.

Career .295, .413 OBP, .539 Slugging. 1150 RC career. 36th all-time in OPS+, ahead of Mike Schmidt, Ralph Kiner, Duke Snider, and tons of other HoFers. Never a good fielder (although - weird - he played a little third at the beginning of his career and was pretty good) but from 1999-2003 was probably the best hitter in the AL, or at least even with Manny Ramirez.

He's a not a very good hitter - he's a great hitter. Do I think he's a HoFer? I don't know - not yet, anyway. Give him a few years.


He has great numbers, but the problem is that he will be judged against a number of other great hitters. There are 5 active players ahead of him right now on the career OPS+ list and another 14 within 10 points. His most comparable players are Mo Vaughn and David Justice, and he has never lead the league in any of the Triple Crown categories.

I think its going to take a fairly strong finish to his career for him to be a strong candidate for the Hall. Without that he will be a unlikely bubble guy along the lines of McGriff.

Keltner Test
#1 Was he ever regarded as the best player in baseball? Did anybody, while he was active, ever suggest that he was the best player in baseball?
During his 3 year peak in Oakland/NY it could be argued he was the best player in the AL. A-Rod tended to get that label more often. His peak conisided with Bonds' peak so it would be almost impossible to argue Giambi as the best in baseball.

#2 Was he the best player on his team?
His last 3 seasons in Oakland and his first in NY he was the best player on his team.

#3 Was he the best player in baseball at his position? Was he the best player in the league at his position?
For a few seasons yes to both. In most other seasons that title would go to Delgado, Thome, Pujols, McGwire, or Bagwell.

#4 Did he have an impact on a number of pennant races?
Playing in Oakland during the height of their postseason run and then NY this should be yes. In his MVP season he carried the Oakland offense.

#5 Was he good enough that he could play regularly after passing his prime?

Still remains to be seen.

#6 Is he the very best baseball player in history who is not in the Hall of Fame?

This is another one that remains to be seen, it depends on how the voting for players like Belle, McGwire, Thomas, Bagwell goes.

#7 Are most players who have comparable statistics in the Hall of Fame?

Right now, no. Of his top 10 most comparable players, only Ralph Kiner made it in. Four of the 10 are still active, but other than Delgado they would all have to be considered longshots to make the Hall.

#8 Do the player's numbers meet Hall of Fame standards?

Right now, no. 13 in Black Ink (average HoF 27), 98 Gray Ink (Ave 144), 35.2 HoF Standards (Ave 50), 90 HoF Monitor (Ave 100).

#9 Is there any evidence to suggest that the player was significantly better or worse than is suggested by his statistics?
Playing in Oakland's pitcher's park hurt his numbers somewhat, although a great deal of his OPS is OBP driven.

#10 Is he the best player at his position who is eligible for the Hall of Fame?
See #5. If any of those 1B fail to make the Hall when Giambi becomes eligible then no.

#11 How many MVP-type seasons did he have? Did he ever win an MVP award? If not, how many times was he close?

1 MVP award, 2 other Top 5, 2 more Top 10.

#12 How many All-Star-type seasons did he have? How many All-Star games did he play in? Did most of the players who played in this many All-Star games go into the Hall of Fame?

5 Time All-Star. Usually All-Star games aren't a great predictor until you get close to the double digit mark.

#13 If this man were the best player on his team, would it be likely that the team could win the pennant?

At his peak, yes. He was a dominant offensive force.

#14 What impact did the player have on baseball history? Was he responsible for any rule changes? Did he introduce any new equipment? Did he change the game in any way?
#15 Did the player uphold the standards of sportsmanship and character that the Hall of Fame, in its written guidelines, instructs us to consider?


Both of these will be linked with the steroid debate and be held at the discretion of the Baseball Writers. There are enough threads devoted to the subject.


Great posts guys.

A lot better than the "hes still on steriods" argument...

;-D ;-D ;-D
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