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Surfs up wrote:Anybody else think I should trade Hillenbrand for Sexson?
TheYanks04 wrote:Maybe. Or maybe he is just in for a crummy season. It is not like it would be completely shocking to see him end up at 235 with 25 hrs and 80 rbis.
pibb55 wrote:Sexson, barring any hidden injuries, will turn it around....
Worst Case his numbers will look like this:
.250 85 R 30 HR 100 RBI
.265 95 R 35 HR 115 RBI
I think it'll end up somewhere in between:
.254 91 R 34 HR 106 RBI
klvrdude wrote:I'm sorry to say it, but I think your "worst" case is really a best case. To make those #'s a reality he'll need to avg 16.5R/6.0HR/18.3RBI/.270 a month for the next 4 months.
Those #'s aren't out of his capability, b/c that is approx what he got over the last 4 mo of 2005, but he also didn't "slump" like this last year either.
He's a year older (31), on a lack luster team with no passion and possibly a year long nagging foot/heal injury.
Personally, I'm not in a position where I can wait for him to get hot. I'm going to test the "buy-low" market, b/c I don't think he's going to make huge strides this year.
pibb55 wrote:I wouldn't sell low on Sexson unless you truly think he's injured. He is currently getting unlucky and hasn't found his stroke yet. He has a career HR/AB of 15.15, this year its at 32.33, more than double his normal Home run rate. Also, his BA/BIP is at .268, an average hitter is around .300 at least, he is getting very unlucky and should bust out to his normal self with a 9 HR month soon.
Mordraken wrote:2 years ago I drafted Jason Giambi. After the first 3 months he had a .926 OPS with a .270 Average, 9 Homers (very low for him) & 20 runs / 24 RBIs in 37 games. He went on to finish the year with a .152 average, .505 OPS, 3 homers and 13/16 runs/RBIS in his final 48 games.
Last year I drafted Jim Thome. After 3 months he had a .676 OPS with 2 homers, 15 runs and 17 RBIs, and the second "half" of his season (only June) he improved to a .752 OPS with 5 homers, 11 runs and 13 RBIs in 26 games.
Looking at my wonderful pick this year, Sexson has a .640 OPS with 6 homers, 19 runs and 27 RBIs. Those are numbers right around where Thome was (but with a bit more power and RBIs).
I stuck with both Giambi and Thome for the entire year (it's a keeper league) and passed on them in their comeback year the following year. Based on my luck, you should drop them now and draft them next year.
However, based on Giambi & Thome's bad years, it is entirely possible for Sexson to suck all year long. If there was anyone in my league worth picking up, I'd make the move, but until he starts hitting better, he'll ride my bench and I'll field a team without a DH (his OBP and SLG hurts my team more than his 2-3 RBIs & Runs/week helps).
Batters seem to have a tendency to drop off the face of the earth very quickly... especially if they are my primary 1B.
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